Kansas City is in a free-fall. After a 5-0 start, in which Alex Smith became a MVP favorite, the Chiefs have lost five of their last six games. The offense has been a major issue. The unit that led the NFL in scoring during its winning streak (32.8 ppg) is averaging just 18.0 points per game in its last six including a 10-point performance at home against a ho-hum Bills squad.

Alex Smith has regressed, Kareem Hunt hit the rookie wall (less than 50 yards rushing in three of the last four games) and a defense that ranked 6th in DVOA in 2015 and 14th in 2016 is now below average (27th in yards per game allowed and 18th in turnovers forced). KC is a mess but are the Chiefs in danger of missing the playoffs?

No. The Chiefs still lead the AFC West, though only by one game. A division that just last season sent multiple teams to the playoffs is much weaker than expected and none of the team’s remaining opponents have a winning record. Even with all their troubles, Kansas City has a 71.9% chance of winning the division and a 76.8% chance of making the playoffs. Never underestimate the power of banking early-season wins and playing a soft schedule.

Here is everything else you need to know after Week 12. Our projections are based on 10,000 simulations of the 2017-18 season using player and team statistics adjusted for strength of schedule.

Biggest Winners

Buffalo Bills (+13.4% increase in playoff probability): With Tyrod Taylor back under center the Bills went into Arrowhead and pulled off the upset as 8.5-point dogs. The defense which had allowed 129 points over its previous three games clamped down on the Chiefs offense surrendering just one touchdown.

Los Angeles Chargers (+11.0% increase in playoff probability): The Bolts started the season 0-4 but with the Browns coming to town in Week 13, the team has a chance to get back to .500. The defense is 6th in DVOA vs. the pass and has forced 12 interceptions in the last five games, a trend that could continue against DeShone Kizer on Sunday.

Biggest Losers

Detroit Lions (-23.9% decrease in playoff probability): The Lions playoff probability took a major hit on Thanksgiving. Losing to Minnesota on Turkey Day makes it nearly impossible for Detroit to win the division (1.8%) and at 6-5, Matthew Stafford and crew are behind the Falcons, Seahawks and Panthers in the Wild Card race.

Kansas City Chiefs (-17.1% decrease in playoff probability): The Chiefs aren’t a playoff lock but half the league would trade places with them. The sky is not falling in Kansas City, yet but a loss in New York to the Jets on Sunday and all bets are off.

Most likely AFC Playoff teams:

  • Patriots 99.8%
  • Steelers 99.8%
  • Jaguars 98.4%
  • Ravens 78.7%
  • Chiefs 76.8%
  • Titans 72.0%

Most likely NFC Playoff teams:

  • Eagles 100.0%
  • Vikings 99.1%
  • Rams 87.7%
  • Saints 86.9%
  • Seahawks 77.2%
  • Panthers 74.9%

Odds to get 1st Pick

  • Browns 77.2%
  • 49ers 19.5%
  • Giants 2.8%
  • Colts 0.2%
  • Bears 0.2%
  • Broncos 0.1%

The Browns are winless but Cleveland isn’t a lock for the top pick. San Francisco is right behind Cleveland in mediocrity. The Niners only have one win on the season and could challenge for the No. 1 pick if everything goes right, and by that, I mean they lose each remaining game.

Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.

TeamDivision Winner %Make Playoffs %Win Super Bowl %
New England Patriots98.6199.823.64
Philadelphia Eagles10010023.41
Pittsburgh Steelers94.1799.8113.74
Minnesota Vikings98.1599.129.79
Jacksonville Jaguars77.898.47.04
Los Angeles Rams56.3687.715.48
New Orleans Saints56.7586.95.06
Kansas City Chiefs71.9176.812.57
Carolina Panthers28.6274.92.35
Seattle Seahawks43.5877.182.14
Baltimore Ravens5.878.721.98
Atlanta Falcons14.6353.841.28
Los Angeles Chargers21.6729.060.9
Tennessee Titans22.0671.970.35
Detroit Lions1.7718.320.13
Buffalo Bills1.3929.370.07
Oakland Raiders6.48.650.05
Cincinnati Bengals0.035.150.02
Dallas Cowboys01.160
Houston Texans0.141.010
Miami Dolphins00.690
New York Jets00.460
Green Bay Packers0.080.410
Arizona Cardinals0.060.340
Tampa Bay Buccaneers00.10
Denver Broncos0.020.070
Indianapolis Colts00.030
Washington Redskins00.020
Chicago Bears000
Cleveland Browns000
New York Giants000
San Francisco 49ers000