Kansas City is in a free-fall. After a 5-0 start, in which Alex Smith became a MVP favorite, the Chiefs have lost five of their last six games. The offense has been a major issue. The unit that led the NFL in scoring during its winning streak (32.8 ppg) is averaging just 18.0 points per game in its last six including a 10-point performance at home against a ho-hum Bills squad.
Alex Smith has regressed, Kareem Hunt hit the rookie wall (less than 50 yards rushing in three of the last four games) and a defense that ranked 6th in DVOA in 2015 and 14th in 2016 is now below average (27th in yards per game allowed and 18th in turnovers forced). KC is a mess but are the Chiefs in danger of missing the playoffs?
No. The Chiefs still lead the AFC West, though only by one game. A division that just last season sent multiple teams to the playoffs is much weaker than expected and none of the team’s remaining opponents have a winning record. Even with all their troubles, Kansas City has a 71.9% chance of winning the division and a 76.8% chance of making the playoffs. Never underestimate the power of banking early-season wins and playing a soft schedule.
Here is everything else you need to know after Week 12. Our projections are based on 10,000 simulations of the 2017-18 season using player and team statistics adjusted for strength of schedule.
Biggest Winners
Buffalo Bills (+13.4% increase in playoff probability): With Tyrod Taylor back under center the Bills went into Arrowhead and pulled off the upset as 8.5-point dogs. The defense which had allowed 129 points over its previous three games clamped down on the Chiefs offense surrendering just one touchdown.
Los Angeles Chargers (+11.0% increase in playoff probability): The Bolts started the season 0-4 but with the Browns coming to town in Week 13, the team has a chance to get back to .500. The defense is 6th in DVOA vs. the pass and has forced 12 interceptions in the last five games, a trend that could continue against DeShone Kizer on Sunday.
Biggest Losers
Detroit Lions (-23.9% decrease in playoff probability): The Lions playoff probability took a major hit on Thanksgiving. Losing to Minnesota on Turkey Day makes it nearly impossible for Detroit to win the division (1.8%) and at 6-5, Matthew Stafford and crew are behind the Falcons, Seahawks and Panthers in the Wild Card race.
Kansas City Chiefs (-17.1% decrease in playoff probability): The Chiefs aren’t a playoff lock but half the league would trade places with them. The sky is not falling in Kansas City, yet but a loss in New York to the Jets on Sunday and all bets are off.
Most likely AFC Playoff teams:
- Patriots 99.8%
- Steelers 99.8%
- Jaguars 98.4%
- Ravens 78.7%
- Chiefs 76.8%
- Titans 72.0%
Most likely NFC Playoff teams:
- Eagles 100.0%
- Vikings 99.1%
- Rams 87.7%
- Saints 86.9%
- Seahawks 77.2%
- Panthers 74.9%
Odds to get 1st Pick
- Browns 77.2%
- 49ers 19.5%
- Giants 2.8%
- Colts 0.2%
- Bears 0.2%
- Broncos 0.1%
The Browns are winless but Cleveland isn’t a lock for the top pick. San Francisco is right behind Cleveland in mediocrity. The Niners only have one win on the season and could challenge for the No. 1 pick if everything goes right, and by that, I mean they lose each remaining game.
Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.
Team | Division Winner % | Make Playoffs % | Win Super Bowl % |
---|---|---|---|
New England Patriots | 98.61 | 99.8 | 23.64 |
Philadelphia Eagles | 100 | 100 | 23.41 |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 94.17 | 99.81 | 13.74 |
Minnesota Vikings | 98.15 | 99.12 | 9.79 |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 77.8 | 98.4 | 7.04 |
Los Angeles Rams | 56.36 | 87.71 | 5.48 |
New Orleans Saints | 56.75 | 86.9 | 5.06 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 71.91 | 76.81 | 2.57 |
Carolina Panthers | 28.62 | 74.9 | 2.35 |
Seattle Seahawks | 43.58 | 77.18 | 2.14 |
Baltimore Ravens | 5.8 | 78.72 | 1.98 |
Atlanta Falcons | 14.63 | 53.84 | 1.28 |
Los Angeles Chargers | 21.67 | 29.06 | 0.9 |
Tennessee Titans | 22.06 | 71.97 | 0.35 |
Detroit Lions | 1.77 | 18.32 | 0.13 |
Buffalo Bills | 1.39 | 29.37 | 0.07 |
Oakland Raiders | 6.4 | 8.65 | 0.05 |
Cincinnati Bengals | 0.03 | 5.15 | 0.02 |
Dallas Cowboys | 0 | 1.16 | 0 |
Houston Texans | 0.14 | 1.01 | 0 |
Miami Dolphins | 0 | 0.69 | 0 |
New York Jets | 0 | 0.46 | 0 |
Green Bay Packers | 0.08 | 0.41 | 0 |
Arizona Cardinals | 0.06 | 0.34 | 0 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0 | 0.1 | 0 |
Denver Broncos | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0 |
Indianapolis Colts | 0 | 0.03 | 0 |
Washington Redskins | 0 | 0.02 | 0 |
Chicago Bears | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cleveland Browns | 0 | 0 | 0 |
New York Giants | 0 | 0 | 0 |
San Francisco 49ers | 0 | 0 | 0 |