In a few days, the world’s greatest eaters will return to Coney Island for the 2017 Nathan’s Famous International Hot Dog Eating Contest on July 4th. Defending champion Joe Chestnut is favored to keep the Mustard Belt.

The No. 1 eater, ranked by Major League Eating, in the world has odds similar to a shark vs. Michael Phelps to win his tenth title. Which is fitting given that his nickname is “Jaws”.

Odds to win Hot Dog Contest

EaterOddsField
Joey Chestnut-485+350
Matthew Stonie+400-600
Carmen Cincotti+3500-13500
Geoffrey Esper+5000-20000
Gideon Oji+40000-200000
Adrian Morgan+60000-300000

Matt Stonie, the 2015 champion, is the second favorite (+400). Combined Chestnut and Stonie are -6900 to win the belt, the Field is +2300.

Also available to wager on is the number of hot dogs Chestnut will eat. Competitors have 10 minutes to finish as many hot dogs and buns as possible. Chestnut set a contest record by downing 70 dogs last year. He also owns the record for most wieners devoured (73.5) in a qualifying event.

How many hot dogs will Chestnut eat?

HotdogsOverUnder
73.5+525-975
73+425-675
70.5+190-270
69.5+130-170
68.5-115-125
63.5-530+350
60.5-1200+600
62.5+100-140

Stonie’s over/under is 62.5. The UNDER is juiced to -140, implied probability of 58.3% chance he eats 62 or fewer dogs. Stonie ate 62 hot dogs when he won the contest in 2015.

Chestnut is a 6.5-dog favorite over Stonie head-to-head. Stonie, a.k.a. Megatoad, ate 53 dogs last year compared to Chestnut’s 70 but the odds favor Stonie (+6.5, -175).

Additional Props

Will There be an Eat-Off to determine the winner?

  • Yes +1250
  • No -2750

Total hot dogs eaten by Women’s winner:

  • Over 39.5: +115
  • Under 39.5: -155

Chestnut is favored to win but he isn’t unbeatable anymore. Can Stonie or another eater take down the champ? We find out on July 4th.

All odds courtesy of 5Dimes.


MLB Over/Under Pro Systems

Over/Under picks are 90-69 (57%), +18.9 units in 2017

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