There’s only two weeks left in the regular season and the number of playoff spots available are dwindling. The Patriots, Steelers, Jaguars, Eagles and Vikings have clinched postseason berths, leaving seven spots up for grabs.
BetOnline is offering prop bets for 10 teams to make or miss the playoffs. After 10,000 simulations of the 2017 season, here are the bets worth placing.
Los Angeles Chargers – Make
Current odds: +240, Implied Probability: 29.4%
Chargers make the playoffs 44.0% of the time.
The Bolts need help to reach the postseason after losing in Kansas City last week. There are three possible scenarios that see L.A. in the playoffs. First, the team wins out and the Chiefs lose out to capture the AFC West. Another scenario involves the Chargers beating the Jets and Raiders, the Titans dropping their last two games and the Bills losing at least once. The last way Philip Rivers & Co. get in is if the Ravens lose their next two games, the Bills lose at least once and the Chargers win out. I’ll let you decide which is the most probable outcome but add them all up and there is a 44.0% chance the team sneaks into the playoffs.
Carolina Panthers – Make
Current odds: -1000, Implied Probability: 90.9%
Panthers make the playoffs 98.8% of the time.
This is the simplest bet you’ll make all season. Carolina can clinch a playoff berth with a win on Sunday against Tampa. Cam and the Panthers are 10-point favorites at home over their division rival. Newton has never lost a game at home as a favorite of 7 or more points (11-0).
Other teams with value to make the playoffs: Saints -1500
Tennessee Titans – Miss
Current odds: -140, Implied Probability: 58.3%
Titans miss the playoffs 63.6% of the time.
Tennessee is currently the 5-seed in the AFC but no longer controls its own destiny after consecutive losses. The Titans are battling the Bills and Ravens for a Wild Card spot. The team’s best chance of ending a decade-long playoff drought is to win out (home vs. the Rams and Jags). There is just an 8.5% chance Tennessee beats both L.A. and Jacksonville in consecutive weeks.
Detroit Lions – Miss
Current odds: -700, Implied Probability: 87.5%
Lions miss the playoffs 92.0% of the time.
Any path to the playoffs for Detroit begins with the team winning its last two games. The Lions are 4.5-point road favorites in Cincy this week and should be sizeable favorites at home against an Aaron Rodgers-less Packers squad in Week 17. Here is where it gets tricky. Detroit would also need one of the Falcons, Saints or Panthers to lose out. Detroit is a long shot to make the playoffs and rightfully so, sharp bettors will lay the chalk (bet $700 to win $100) that the Lions don’t play meaningful football in January.
Other teams with value to miss the playoffs: Dallas Cowboys -1000 and Seahawks -800
NFL Playoff Props and Probabilities
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