Which team is going to win March Madness? Maybe you don’t know but I bet you have a good idea of the teams that won’t. Enter “Champion vs. Field” prop bets for March Madness. At 5Dimes you can bet whether a team or the field will win the NCAA tournament. Here are props offering value.

To determine if a team or the field has value we look at the current betting odds and compare that to our projected odds. For example, North Carolina is +795 to win the Big Dance, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Tar Heels they would need to win it all 11.2% (which is 100/(795+100)) of the time. UNC is projected to win the tournament 6.9% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +795 odds.

Bet the Team

Gonzaga Bulldogs

Current odds: +795, Implied Probability: 11.2%

Zags win title 21.2% of the time

Mark Few’s team continues to be overlooked even with a 32-1 record and ranking No. 4 in the country. The Zags defeated Saint Mary’s 74-56 to capture the WCC tournament title and a likely No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Despite what the haters say, Gonzaga is the most likely team to win the Big Dance.

West Virginia

Current odds: +2650, Implied Probability: 3.6%

WVU win title 6.0% of the time

The Mountaineers are currently projected as a 4-seed but that undersells how dangerous a team this is from Morgantown. According to kenpom WVU is the third best team in the country with a top 5 defense. Look for Press-Virginia to wreak havoc in the tournament.

Other teams with value to win the NCAA tournament: Kentucky +1275, Louisville +1675, Florida +2350, Virginia +3750 and Baylor +4500

Bet the Field

Field vs. UCLA

Current odds: -1455, Implied Probability: 93.6%

Field wins title 98.7% of the time

UCLA is a public team with one of the best offenses in the country and a star in Lonzo Ball. The Bruins have been getting a lot of love this season but the team’s Achilles heel is defense. You can score all the points you want but if you can’t stop the other team it is going to be difficult to win. The numbers continue to dislike UCLA, bet the field.

Field vs. Kansas

Current odds: -1175, Implied Probability: 92.2%

Field wins title 95.6% of the time

KU is No. 1 in the AP Poll and the betting favorite in Vegas. The Jayhawks are one of the most balanced teams in the Big 12 and a clear top 10 team in the country. Yet, it is really hard to win a single-elimination tournament and the field is offering value.

Other field bets with value: Field vs. Duke -2187, Field vs. Oregon -3575 and Field vs. Arizona -3875


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Champion vs. Field Prop Bets

TeamOddsFieldProjected Chance
Kansas+650-11754.4%
North Carolina+795-14556.9%
Gonzaga+795-145521.2%
UCLA+795-14551.3%
Villanova+995-17459.0%
Duke+1175-21871.9%
Kentucky+1275-24757.4%
Oregon+1475-35752.4%
Arizona+1575-38751.4%
Louisville+1675-41256.6%
Florida+2350-58756.3%
Purdue+2450-61252.2%
Florida State+2650-64001.7%
West Virginia+2650-64006.0%
Virginia+3750-110004.3%
Wisconsin+4000-125001.1%
SMU+4500-140001.5%
Baylor+4500-140004.7%