Update: 11/14/17

Boston opened as 7-point favorites at Brooklyn, more than 70% of spread bets are on the Celtics. Fade Brad Stevens’ team.


Despite injuries (Gordon Hayward – ankle, Kyrie Irving – facial fracture, Al Horford – concussion) and a young roster, the Celtics extended their winning streak to 12 games with a 95-94 win over the Toronto Raptors on Sunday. Boston has been on a roll and not just on the court.

Perhaps even more impressive than the 12 straight wins is Brad Stevens’ teams record against-the-spread. Since 2005, no team has produced a better ATS record through 14 games than Boston. The Celtics have covered the spread in 11 of 14 games.

A cover rate of greater than 80% against-the-spread is unsustainable. In our database, no team has managed to keep cashing tickets at that pace past the 39th game of the season. The Celtics are the best ATS team ever (through 14 games), is it time to fade Boston?

Historically, all teams that have an 80% cover rate have gone 281-315-14 (47.1%) ATS in their next game. However, blindly fading these great ATS teams is unwise. Betting against the public is a profitable strategy in the NBA, it pays dividends once again in this scenario.

Teams with an ATS win rate of 80% or greater (next game)

Spread Ticket %ATS RecordUnits
Greater than 50%157-210-9 (42.8%)-60.34
Less than 50%121-98-5 (55.3%)+17.10

Let the squares decide. Boston’s next game is on Tuesday at home against Brooklyn. If recreational bettors back the East leading Celtics, it has been profitable to fade teams with an ATS win rate of 80% or greater. However, if a majority of spread tickets are on the Nets contrarian bettors will want to take the Celtics.

Currently, there is no line for Tuesday’s game. Check back tomorrow and we will have updated odds and public betting percentages for Celtics-Nets.