Avery Bradley made a three-pointer with less than a second left to upset the Cleveland Cavaliers 111-108 in Game 3. The Celtics rallied from down 21 in the third quarter for the biggest playoff upset since 2005. Only 31% of spread bets were on Boston to cover as 15.5 point underdogs. Cleveland burned bettors but the Cavs are going to win (and cover) Game 4.

Teams off a loss in the playoffs have gone 488-495 (49.6%) in their next game, that’s up from a 45.6% (6890-8211) win rate in the regular season.

When those teams are then favored in the next game after a loss they win nearly 70% of their games.

Only once has a team lost in the playoffs when they are favored by 10 or more points after losing the previous game.

Teams don’t cover the spread at the same rate but it is still highly profitable to back a big favorite off a loss.

Double-digit favorites after a loss in the playoffs have gone 18-7 (72.0%) ATS.

Cleveland opened as 15 point favorites in Game 4. The Cavs let bettors down in Game 3 but history suggests LeBron and crew will win and cover in Game 4.


Spurs vs. Warriors Game 4

This betting system 471-358 (57%) ATS since 2005

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