The New England Patriots defeated the Atlanta Falcons 34-28 in overtime to win Super Bowl LI. The Pats are listed as 5-1 favorites to win a sixth title next season but how likely is Tom Brady and Bill Belichick to repeat as champions?
Regression to the mean is common for Super Bowl champions. Everything has to go right to win the title. On average, defending champions win 1.74 fewer games the following season.
However, teams just need to make the playoffs to have a chance of winning the Super Bowl. Defending champions have made it back to the postseason 34 times with just 16 teams missing the playoffs after winning it all.
There have been 12 teams that returned to the title game after winning it all the previous season. Seattle appeared in back-to-back Super Bowls from 2014-2015.
There have only been eight repeat champions in the Super Bowl era. This suggests teams repeat just 16.0% of the time but the last team to accomplish the feat was the Patriots.
With Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, the Patriots have a better chance than the average Super Bowl winner of becoming the ninth team to repeat.
Super Bowl Winners (next season)
- Won Super Bowl – 8
- Lost Super Bowl – 4
- Lost Conference title game – 7
- Lost Divisional Round – 12
- Lost Wild Card – 3
- Missed Playoffs – 16
Football is over, sad.
But basketball is heating up, get Pro System picks for all the top games
|Super Bowl||Winner||Next Season Result?|
|XLVIII||Seahawks||Lost Super Bowl|
|XLV||Packers||Lost Divisional Round|
|XLIV||Saints||Lost Wild Card|
|XLII||Giants||Lost Divisional Round|
|XLI||Colts||Lost Divisional Round|
|XXXIX||Patriots||Lost Divisional Round|
|XXXVIII||Patriots||Won Super Bowl|
|XXXV||Ravens||Lost Divisional Round|
|XXXIV||Rams||Lost Divisional Round|
|XXXII||Broncos||Won Super Bowl|
|XXXI||Packers||Lost Super Bowl|
|XXX||Cowboys||Lost Divisional Round|
|XXIX||49ers||Lost Divisional Round|
|XXVII||Cowboys||Won Super Bowl|
|XXVI||Redskins||Lost Divisional Round|
|XXIII||49ers||Won Super Bowl|
|XX||Bears||Lost Divisional Round|
|XIX||49ers||Lost Wild Card|
|XVIII||Rams||Lost Wild Card|
|XVII||Redskins||Lost Super Bowl|
|XIII||Steelers||Won Super Bowl|
|XII||Cowboys||Lost Super Bowl|
|IX||Steelers||Won Super Bowl|
|VIII||Dolphins||Lost Divisional Round|
|VII||Dolphins||Won Super Bowl|
|III||Jets||Lost Divisional Round|
|I||Packers||Won Super Bowl|