The New England Patriots defeated the Atlanta Falcons 34-28 in overtime to win Super Bowl LI. The Pats are listed as 5-1 favorites to win a sixth title next season but how likely is Tom Brady and Bill Belichick to repeat as champions?

Regression to the mean is common for Super Bowl champions. Everything has to go right to win the title. On average, defending champions win 1.74 fewer games the following season.

However, teams just need to make the playoffs to have a chance of winning the Super Bowl. Defending champions have made it back to the postseason 34 times with just 16 teams missing the playoffs after winning it all.

There have been 12 teams that returned to the title game after winning it all the previous season. Seattle appeared in back-to-back Super Bowls from 2014-2015.

There have only been eight repeat champions in the Super Bowl era. This suggests teams repeat just 16.0% of the time but the last team to accomplish the feat was the Patriots.

With Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, the Patriots have a better chance than the average Super Bowl winner of becoming the ninth team to repeat.

Super Bowl Winners (next season)

  • Won Super Bowl – 8
  • Lost Super Bowl – 4
  • Lost Conference title game – 7
  • Lost Divisional Round – 12
  • Lost Wild Card – 3
  • Missed Playoffs – 16

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Super BowlWinnerNext Season Result?
LBroncosMissed Playoffs
XLIXPatriotsLost Conference
XLVIIISeahawksLost Super Bowl
XLVIIRavensMissed Playoffs
XLVIGiantsMissed Playoffs
XLVPackersLost Divisional Round
XLIVSaintsLost Wild Card
XLIIISteelersMissed Playoffs
XLIIGiantsLost Divisional Round
XLIColtsLost Divisional Round
XLSteelersMissed Playoffs
XXXIXPatriotsLost Divisional Round
XXXVIIIPatriotsWon Super Bowl
XXXVIIBuccaneersMissed Playoffs
XXXVIPatriotsMissed Playoffs
XXXVRavensLost Divisional Round
XXXIVRamsLost Divisional Round
XXXIIIBroncosMissed Playoffs
XXXIIBroncosWon Super Bowl
XXXIPackersLost Super Bowl
XXXCowboysLost Divisional Round
XXIX49ersLost Divisional Round
XXVIIICowboysLost Conference
XXVIICowboysWon Super Bowl
XXVIRedskinsLost Divisional Round
XXVGiantsMissed Playoffs
XXIV49ersLost Conference
XXIII49ersWon Super Bowl
XXIIRedskinsMissed Playoffs
XXIGiantsMissed Playoffs
XXBearsLost Divisional Round
XIX49ersLost Wild Card
XVIIIRamsLost Wild Card
XVIIRedskinsLost Super Bowl
XVI49ersMissed Playoffs
XVRaidersMissed Playoffs
XIVSteelersMissed Playoffs
XIIISteelersWon Super Bowl
XIICowboysLost Super Bowl
XIRaidersLost Conference
XSteelersLost Conference
IXSteelersWon Super Bowl
VIIIDolphinsLost Divisional Round
VIIDolphinsWon Super Bowl
VICowboysLost Conference
VColtsLost Conference
IVChiefsMissed Playoffs
IIIJetsLost Divisional Round
IIPackersMissed Playoffs
IPackersWon Super Bowl