The Blackhawks, Blue Jackets, Flames and Wild are on the verge of elimination. Each team has started the 2017 NHL playoffs with three straight losses. Can these teams avoid being swept?
Since 2005, teams down 0-3 have won Game 4 57.1% of the time (24-18). The Blue Jackets and Flames will play their elimination game at home. Teams that lost the first three games of a series and play Game 4 at home have gone 14-11 (56.0%) while road teams (Blackhawks and Wild) in the same spot have gone 10-7 (58.8%) straight-up.
Hockey players don’t quit as is evident by their record in 0-3 elimination games but the best way to know if a team on the verge of being swept will live to play another game is if they are favored to win. I know, that’s crazy right? A team down 0-3 that is favored in Game 4 has gone 10-3 (76.9%) straight-up since 2005. Underdogs are 14-15 (48.3%). This is clearly a small sample but the difference in win rate between favorites and dogs is significant.
There have been 182 NHL playoff series where a team gets down 0-3, only four times have those squads come back to win the series. I don’t expect, nor does Vegas, that any of these teams rally to advance to the next round. However, don’t be surprised if they win Game 4. The Blue Jackets opened as favorites against the Pens and the Wild are slight favorites on the road in St. Louis.
First Round NHL Playoffs
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