The Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Chicago Cubs 6-1 on Tuesday to take a commanding 3-0 lead in the NL Championship Series. L.A. is -2300 (5Dimes) to advance to the World Series. Chicago is on the brink of elimination; can the Cubs avoid being swept?

Since 2005, not including Wild Card games, there have been 89 teams that have faced elimination at home. Those teams have gone 42-47 straight-up, -15.86 units. Not great, but it gets worse if you look at teams facing a sweep.

RoundRecordUnits
Division Series11-10+0.23
League Championship1-5-4.14
World Series0-3-3.0
Total12-18-6.91

It’s a small sample but teams trying to avoid being swept are 12-18, -6.91 units since 2005. In the LCS and World Series the record falls to 1-8 straight-up, -7.14 units.

History is not on the Cubbies side. Though, in Game 4 tonight Chicago has Jake Arrieta on the mound and the defending champs opened as -109 moneyline favorites, a 52.2% implied probability of winning.

The North Siders might extend the series tonight but only one team (out of 35) down 0-3 in a best-of-seven series has rallied to win.


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