The Golden State Warriors rallied to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers 118-113 on Wednesday night. The Warriors have a commanding 3-0 series lead and are -10000 to win the championship. It is unlikely that LeBron gets his fourth ring but can the Cavs avoid being swept?

Teams on the brink of elimination haven’t fared well lately in the NBA Playoffs. In the last five years, teams facing elimination are 53-73 (42.1%) straight-up and 58-66-2 (46.0%) ATS.

In the NBA Finals teams facing elimination have done even worse. Since 2005, there have been 22 games where a team’s title hopes could be ended and those squads have gone 9-13 (40.9%) straight-up and 8-14 (36.4%) ATS.

Home teams in NBA Finals elimination games have gone 6-7 straight-up and 4-9 ATS while underdogs are 3-8 straight-up and 5-6 against-the-spread. Home underdogs in the NBA Finals with their backs against the wall are 0-2 straight-up since 2005.

These are small samples but history is not on the Cavs side. Neither are the betting odds. The Warriors are -240 moneyline favorites in Game 4, the implied probability suggests a 70.6% chance of Golden State winning.

No team in NBA history has come back to win a series after losing the first three games. Cleveland won’t repeat and it is unlikely that the Cavs even force a Game 5.


2017 NBA Finals

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