Buy on bad news (bet teams with no public support), sell on good (fade a team off a top 10 win). This is a simple contrarian betting strategy that has proven profitable year to year. While this betting philosophy is usually right, it doesn’t apply to every situation. Bettors shouldn’t fade all teams after a great performance.
Virginia quarterback Kurt Benkert set a school-record last Saturday against UConn throwing for 455 yards. The Cavaliers rolled to an easy 38-18 win totaling 626 yards of offense. Another team to rack up gaudy offensive numbers a week ago was Toledo. The Rockets amassed 679 yards of offense outgunning Tulsa 54-51. In total, six teams in Week 3 ran and threw for over 600 yards. Teams don’t often accumulate that many yards of offense in one game. It seems like this would be a great opportunity to sell on good news but that’s not the case.
Using the Offensive Yards Streak filter, we can see that it has been profitable to bet teams after monster offensive games (600+ yards). The results go against our “sell on good news” strategy.
We find a winning betting system simply by betting on teams after big offensive games that are underdogs.
The sweet spot is betting road underdogs after games in which a team has accumulated 600 or more yards of offense.
A contrarian bettor’s first instinct would be to fade a team following a strong offensive game. If the team is favored the next week it is a smart fade (254-263, -23.19 units). But road dogs off big offensive games have proven to be a solid bet (115-70, 62.2% ATS, +39.17 units).
In Week 4, Virginia (+13) at Boise State and Toledo (+13.5) at Miami are game matches. To see the rest of the teams that qualify under this system and get access to Pro System picks, try Bet Labs for a month.
All Football Pro System picks: +22.97 units in 2017