Brett Hundley is no Aaron Rodgers, there we said it. Green Bay is 1-4 without their star quarterback (including the game he got hurt) and have struggled to score. The Packers are averaging 13.4 points per game with Hundley who ranks 34th among quarterbacks in passer rating (63.1) the last five weeks and has committed eight turnovers (seven interceptions, one fumble).

Points haven’t been a problem for the AFC North leaders. The Steelers have won five in a row and are averaging 25.6 points per game during the streak including a 40-17 thrashing of the Titans last Thursday.

Pittsburgh is a 14-point favorite at home against Green Bay on Sunday night. Which is the smarter bet: Steelers or Packers?

Betting against the public is a profitable strategy in the NFL. The more lopsided the action the better the return for fading recreational bettors. At the time of publication, over 75% of spread tickets are on the Killer B’s. It is also a sharp move to capitalize on recency bias, contrarian bettors can exploit the tendency of casual fans that put too much stock in what happened in the previous game (Green Bay lost 22-0 to Baltimore). One example is buying low on teams after a bad offensive performance.

Teams getting less than 30% of bets that are coming off a bad offensive game have covered over 60% against-the-spread since 2003.

Trend

Against the public after a bad offensive game.

This Pro System has gone 142-89-4 (61.5%) ATS since 2003. Bettors that wagered $100 on each game would have made a profit of $4,464. This year alone the betting system is a perfect 6-0 ATS.

Our Pick

The results (and profit) have your attention but Hundley is a major concern. Fair enough but here are few other quarterbacks whose teams matched this system and managed to cover: Mark Sanchez, Brady Quinn, Geno Smith, Blaine Gabbert, and JaMarcus Russell, to name a few. If Mr. Butt Fumble can do it, anyone can. The spread accounts for the teams on the field, the Packers look like one of the league’s worst squads but 14 points is too many, even for Brett Hundley.


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