Gonzaga’s perfect season was spoiled by BYU last Saturday. The loss was the second biggest upset of a No. 1 team in our database and knocked the Zags out of the top overall spot in the tournament. No longer unblemished, what impact does the loss have on the Bulldogs March Madness probabilities?

To find out we simulated the NCAA tournament 10,000 times using Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology.

A perfect season would have been a great story but dropping one game is understandable. Mark Few’s team is still No. 1 in our Power Rankings and would be favored over every other top 10 team on a neutral court. After 10,000 simulations, the Bulldogs are your most likely champions.

Gonzaga not only remains the top team in our simulations but actually sees its chance of cutting down the nets improve from 21.3% last week to 22.6%. This will surely ruffle the feathers of the Zags haters out there.

The other teams with at least a 1-in-20 chance of winning it all are North Carolina (10.3%), Kentucky (8.0%), Villanova (7.0%), Louisville (6.0%), West Virginia (5.3%) and Florida (5.1%).

The most likely Final Four consists of No. 1 Gonzaga, No. 1 North Carolina, No. 2 Kentucky and No. Villanova. The Zags are almost as likely to win the title as the other three Final Four participants combined.

The ACC has the most teams in the tournament (9) and there is a tournament-best 24.8% chance the conference wins March Madness.

Bubble Trouble – teams in the tournament that are on the bubble

Last Four Byes

  • Virginia Tech – 7.0% chance of reaching Sweet 16
  • Syracuse – 16.0%
  • USC – 5.8%
  • Cal – 8.3% 

Last Four In

  • Seton Hall – 3.7%
  • Providence – 3.8%
  • Marquette – 8.5%
  • Vanderbilt – 4.7%

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Here are a few teams to keep an eye on as Cinderella’s, Sleepers and Busts.

Cinderella’s – the most likely double-digit seeds in Sweet 16: No. 10 Syracuse 16.0%, No. 10 Northwestern (13.7%), No. 11 Illinois State (11.5%), No. 11 Marquette (8.5%)

Sleepers – the most likely 5+ seeds to make Final Four: No. 5 Virginia (13.5%), No. 8 Wichita State (11.0%), No. 6 Saint Mary’s (7.8%), No. Oklahoma State (6.4%)

Busts – the least likely 1-4 seeds to make Final Four: No. 3 Arizona (8.9%), No. 4 Butler (9.6%), No. 4 Purdue (10.2%), No. 3 Florida State (11.6%), No. 3 UCLA (11.9%)

Below are each team’s chance to advance to the Sweet Sixteen, Final Four and win the national championship.

TeamSeedSweet 16Final 4Champion
Gonzaga185.649.722.6
North Carolina177.736.110.3
Kentucky277.929.68
Villanova179.722.57
Louisville269.720.46
West Virginia451.116.45.3
Florida363.517.55.1
Kansas156.919.84.9
Baylor263.818.53.8
Virginia545.513.53.5
Oregon262.9132.7
Purdue450.610.22.5
Wichita State837.6112.2
Florida State356.611.62.1
Duke447.712.22.1
UCLA35011.91.6
Butler4509.61.4
Saint Marys CA635.87.81.4
SMU538.78.11.2
Arizona348.88.91.1
Cincinnati536.85.70.9
Oklahoma State637.46.40.8
Creighton635.55.20.7
Wisconsin626.540.7
Notre Dame540.560.5
Iowa State723.53.50.5
South Carolina722.140.4
Miami Florida891.70.3
Michigan815.52.90.2
Minnesota714.31.90.1
Maryland717.310.1
Dayton813.110.1
Northwestern1013.71.30.1
VCU96.810
Xavier95.40.70
Michigan State95.40.40
Arkansas97.20.30
Syracuse10160.70
Virginia Tech1070.40
Middle Tenn St106.20.30
Illinois State1111.50.80
Marquette118.50.60
California118.30.50
USC115.80.20
Seton Hall113.70.20
Vanderbilt124.70.20
Providence123.80.20
Nevada126.30.10
Texas Arlington125.30.10
NC Wilmington121.800
E Tennessee St136.30.20
Princeton135.20.20
Vermont131.70.10
Monmouth134.200
Bucknell142.70.10
Akron142.100
Belmont141.700
Winthrop141.500
Cal State Bakersfield153.80.10
Oakland150.800
Florida Gulf Coast150.600
South Dakota150.400
NC Central160.200