Gonzaga’s perfect season was spoiled by BYU last Saturday. The loss was the second biggest upset of a No. 1 team in our database and knocked the Zags out of the top overall spot in the tournament. No longer unblemished, what impact does the loss have on the Bulldogs March Madness probabilities?
A perfect season would have been a great story but dropping one game is understandable. Mark Few’s team is still No. 1 in our Power Rankings and would be favored over every other top 10 team on a neutral court. After 10,000 simulations, the Bulldogs are your most likely champions.
Gonzaga not only remains the top team in our simulations but actually sees its chance of cutting down the nets improve from 21.3% last week to 22.6%. This will surely ruffle the feathers of the Zags haters out there.
The other teams with at least a 1-in-20 chance of winning it all are North Carolina (10.3%), Kentucky (8.0%), Villanova (7.0%), Louisville (6.0%), West Virginia (5.3%) and Florida (5.1%).
The most likely Final Four consists of No. 1 Gonzaga, No. 1 North Carolina, No. 2 Kentucky and No. Villanova. The Zags are almost as likely to win the title as the other three Final Four participants combined.
The ACC has the most teams in the tournament (9) and there is a tournament-best 24.8% chance the conference wins March Madness.
Bubble Trouble – teams in the tournament that are on the bubble
Last Four Byes
- Virginia Tech – 7.0% chance of reaching Sweet 16
- Syracuse – 16.0%
- USC – 5.8%
- Cal – 8.3%
Last Four In
- Seton Hall – 3.7%
- Providence – 3.8%
- Marquette – 8.5%
- Vanderbilt – 4.7%
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Here are a few teams to keep an eye on as Cinderella’s, Sleepers and Busts.
Cinderella’s – the most likely double-digit seeds in Sweet 16: No. 10 Syracuse 16.0%, No. 10 Northwestern (13.7%), No. 11 Illinois State (11.5%), No. 11 Marquette (8.5%)
Sleepers – the most likely 5+ seeds to make Final Four: No. 5 Virginia (13.5%), No. 8 Wichita State (11.0%), No. 6 Saint Mary’s (7.8%), No. Oklahoma State (6.4%)
Busts – the least likely 1-4 seeds to make Final Four: No. 3 Arizona (8.9%), No. 4 Butler (9.6%), No. 4 Purdue (10.2%), No. 3 Florida State (11.6%), No. 3 UCLA (11.9%)
Below are each team’s chance to advance to the Sweet Sixteen, Final Four and win the national championship.
|Team||Seed||Sweet 16||Final 4||Champion|
|Saint Marys CA||6||35.8||7.8||1.4|
|Middle Tenn St||10||6.2||0.3||0|
|E Tennessee St||13||6.3||0.2||0|
|Cal State Bakersfield||15||3.8||0.1||0|
|Florida Gulf Coast||15||0.6||0||0|