There is a new No. 1 seed in the projected bracket for the first time in over a month. North Carolina jumps to the topline after two 20-plus point victories last week coupled with back-to-back losses by Baylor. The Tar Heels are a favorite to win it all but which team is the most likely to cut down the nets during March Madness?
Gonzaga has two games left in their quest to become the first team since Kentucky in 2014-15 to finish the regular season undefeated. The Bulldogs have won 28 straight, the longest winning streak in the country. The Zags have also won 20 straight games by double-digits. Mark Fews’ squad is legit and continues to be our most likely champion.
Gonzaga, the No. 1 team in our Power Rankings, are your most likely champions. The Zags are 21.3% likely to cut down the nets.
Behind Gonzaga rounding out the top five is Villanova (8.2%), North Carolina (7.9%), Florida (6.5%) and West Virginia (6.3%).
The ACC currently has ten teams projected in the tournament and could threaten the Big East’s record for most tourney teams in one season (11). The conference has a 23.9% chance of winning the championship – the best in basketball.
The most likely Final Four consists of No. 1 Gonzaga, No. 1 North Carolina, No. 1 Villanova and No. 3 Duke. UNC and the Dukies have combined to reach the Final Four 35 times. The Zags have never been.
Here are a few teams to keep an eye on as Cinderella’s, Sleepers and Busts.
Cinderella’s – the most likely double-digit seeds in Sweet 16: No. 11 Kansas State (19.0%), No. 10 Cal (15.0%), No. 10 Michigan State (11.8%), No. 11 Middle Tennessee (11.6%)
Sleepers – the most likely 5+ seeds to make Final Four: No. 5 Virginia (20.5%), No. 9 Wichita State (9.5%), No. 5 SMU (8.6%), No. 5 Wisconsin (6.1%), No. 7 Oklahoma State (5.5%)
Busts – the least likely 1-4 seeds to make Final Four: No. 4 Butler (5.5%), No. 3 Florida State (8.1%), No. 4 UCLA (9.1%), No. 2 Arizona (10.5%), No. 2 Oregon (11.9%)
College basketball Over/Under Pro System picks are 106-86, +$1,139 this season
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Below are each team’s chance to advance to the Sweet Sixteen, Final Four and win the national championship.
|Team||Seed||Sweet 16||Final 4||Championship|
|Saint Marys CA||6||26.9||4.7||0.9|
|Middle Tenn St||11||11.6||1||0|
|Cal State Bakersfield||15||2.3||0||0|
|North Dakota State||15||0.8||0||0|
|Florida Gulf Coast||15||0.5||0||0|
|New Orleans U||16||0.1||0||0|