There is a new No. 1 seed in the projected bracket for the first time in over a month. North Carolina jumps to the topline after two 20-plus point victories last week coupled with back-to-back losses by Baylor. The Tar Heels are a favorite to win it all but which team is the most likely to cut down the nets during March Madness?

To find out we simulated the NCAA tournament 10,000 times using Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology.

Gonzaga has two games left in their quest to become the first team since Kentucky in 2014-15 to finish the regular season undefeated. The Bulldogs have won 28 straight, the longest winning streak in the country. The Zags have also won 20 straight games by double-digits. Mark Fews’ squad is legit and continues to be our most likely champion.

Gonzaga, the No. 1 team in our Power Rankings, are your most likely champions. The Zags are 21.3% likely to cut down the nets.

Behind Gonzaga rounding out the top five is Villanova (8.2%), North Carolina (7.9%), Florida (6.5%) and West Virginia (6.3%).

The ACC currently has ten teams projected in the tournament and could threaten the Big East’s record for most tourney teams in one season (11). The conference has a 23.9% chance of winning the championship – the best in basketball.

The most likely Final Four consists of No. 1 Gonzaga, No. 1 North Carolina, No. 1 Villanova and No. 3 Duke. UNC and the Dukies have combined to reach the Final Four 35 times. The Zags have never been.

Here are a few teams to keep an eye on as Cinderella’s, Sleepers and Busts.

Cinderella’s – the most likely double-digit seeds in Sweet 16: No. 11 Kansas State (19.0%), No. 10 Cal (15.0%), No. 10 Michigan State (11.8%), No. 11 Middle Tennessee (11.6%)

Sleepers – the most likely 5+ seeds to make Final Four: No. 5 Virginia (20.5%), No. 9 Wichita State (9.5%), No. 5 SMU (8.6%), No. 5 Wisconsin (6.1%), No. 7 Oklahoma State (5.5%)

Busts – the least likely 1-4 seeds to make Final Four: No. 4 Butler (5.5%), No. 3 Florida State (8.1%), No. 4 UCLA (9.1%), No. 2 Arizona (10.5%), No. 2 Oregon (11.9%)


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Below are each team’s chance to advance to the Sweet Sixteen, Final Four and win the national championship.

TeamSeedSweet 16Final 4Championship
Gonzaga186.244.821.3
Villanova178.827.18.2
North Carolina181.330.27.9
Florida369.424.56.5
West Virginia462.418.86.3
Louisville269.921.56
Kentucky366.620.15.7
Virginia562.220.55.2
Kansas159.220.44.6
Duke368.322.74.3
Baylor265.918.74.2
Oregon259.611.92.9
Purdue458.814.62.9
Wichita State933.19.51.9
Florida State347.28.11.5
UCLA450.59.11.3
SMU544.78.61.3
Wisconsin531.16.11.3
Arizona252.810.51.2
Saint Marys CA626.94.70.9
Cincinnati531.35.20.8
Butler432.45.50.6
Creighton631.44.10.6
Oklahoma State7355.50.5
Notre Dame625.14.40.4
Iowa State726.13.70.4
South Carolina726.22.70.4
Maryland618.42.50.1
Xavier7171.40.1
Northwestern812.31.40.1
VCU88.20.60.1
Dayton86.80.60.1
Michigan912.91.70.1
Miami Florida96.80.70.1
California101510.1
Kansas State11191.60.1
Minnesota87.50.90
Arkansas96.30.40
Virginia Tech1011.50.70
Michigan State1011.80.40
USC103.50.10
Middle Tenn St1111.610
Marquette114.40.30
NC Wilmington114.10.10
Georgia Tech1110.10
TCU125.10.30
Syracuse124.60.20
Seton Hall123.10.20
Vermont123.30.10
Texas Arlington122.80.10
Belmont132.600
Princeton131.900
Monmouth131.700
Akron131.500
Boise State142.400
NC Asheville141.800
Bucknell141.400
Valparaiso141.100
Cal State Bakersfield152.300
Furman152.100
North Dakota State150.800
Florida Gulf Coast150.500
Cal Irvine160.200
NC Central160.200
New Orleans U160.100
North Dakota160.100