March Madness has come early. No. 1 Villanova, No. 2 Kansas and No. 4 Kentucky all were “upset” (KU was an underdog to West Virginia) last night. It is only the second time in the last 20 years that three of the top four teams lost on the same day per ESPN Stats and Information.

Fortunately for Nova, the Jayhawks and Wildcats a loss in January means little to their tournament outlook. Here is what the NCAA tournament could look like through 10,000 simulations of Bracketology.

Kentucky is the betting favorite in Vegas to win the tournament and our simulation agrees that the Wildcats are the most likely champions. John Calipari’s squad wins the national championship 16.4% of the time. Gonzaga (14.1%), Villanova (7.8%), North Carolina (7.0%) and Louisville (6.7%) round out the top five.

The chalk, No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, combine to win March Madness 62.8% of the time. Though the top two seeds cut down the nets more often then the rest of the field, there are still some teams that could surprise. Here are a few of the Cinderella’s, Sleepers and Busts we might see in March.

Cinderella’s – the most likely double-digit seeds in Sweet 16: No. 10 Kansas State (19.1%), No. 11 Miami (17.9%), No. 11 NC Wilmington (15.5%), No. 11 VCU (11.9%), No. 10 Illinois State (10.2), and No. 10 Seton Hall (8.9%).

Sleepers – the most likely 5+ seeds to make Final Four: No. 5 Wisconsin (13.6%), No. 5 Cincinnati (11.4%), No. 5 Purdue (10.7%), No. 5 Duke (8.0%), No. 6 Florida (7.8%), No. 7 SMU (4.1%).

Busts – the least likely 1-4 seeds to make Final Four: No. 4 Notre Dame (7.1%), No. 3 UCLA (7.9%), No. 4 Creighton (8.2%) and No. 3 Oregon (8.3%)


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Below are each team’s chance to advance to the Sweet Sixteen, Final Four and win the national championship.

TeamSeedSweet 16Final FourChampion
Kentucky181.94316.4
Gonzaga286.839.714.1
Kansas176.526.46.3
North Carolina270.726.37
Villanova172.1257.8
Louisville363.223.56.7
West Virginia462.221.36.3
Baylor163.918.35.5
Arizona265.416.53.2
Virginia453.316.34.7
Florida State257.3142.5
Wisconsin554.613.63.2
Butler36111.61.8
Cincinnati552.811.42.1
Purdue545.610.72
Oregon355.88.31.3
Creighton444.18.21
Duke536.381.5
UCLA356.97.90.9
Florida629.97.81.5
Notre Dame440.57.11
SMU723.24.10.6
Saint Marys CA630.43.60.4
South Carolina718.430.4
Indiana724.92.90.2
Iowa State917.72.50.3
Kansas State1019.12.50.2
Xavier625.32.30.3
Minnesota814.81.80.1
Maryland619.71.50.1
TCU811.41.50.1
Dayton816.21.20.1
Illinois State1010.210.1
Miami Florida1117.910.1
Northwestern810.20.90.1
NC Wilmington1115.50.70
Michigan State77.10.50.1
Middle Tenn St115.40.50
Seton Hall108.90.50
Virginia Tech98.50.50
Wake Forest106.10.50
Arkansas9100.40
Marquette166.10.40
VCU1111.90.40
Michigan163.60.30
Texas Tech163.80.20
USC92.80.10
Akron120.500
Belmont143.900
Bucknell150.800
Cal Irvine120.300
Florida Gulf Coast140.900
Georgia Southern150.400
Monmouth130.800
NC Greensboro120.500
Nevada122.600
New Mexico State132.400
New Orleans U160.100
North Dakota State150.800
Pittsburgh160.400
Princeton141.600
Valparaiso132.500
Vermont13100
Weber State160.200
Winthrop141.100