March Madness has come early. No. 1 Villanova, No. 2 Kansas and No. 4 Kentucky all were “upset” (KU was an underdog to West Virginia) last night. It is only the second time in the last 20 years that three of the top four teams lost on the same day per ESPN Stats and Information.
Fortunately for Nova, the Jayhawks and Wildcats a loss in January means little to their tournament outlook. Here is what the NCAA tournament could look like through 10,000 simulations of Bracketology.
Kentucky is the betting favorite in Vegas to win the tournament and our simulation agrees that the Wildcats are the most likely champions. John Calipari’s squad wins the national championship 16.4% of the time. Gonzaga (14.1%), Villanova (7.8%), North Carolina (7.0%) and Louisville (6.7%) round out the top five.
The chalk, No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, combine to win March Madness 62.8% of the time. Though the top two seeds cut down the nets more often then the rest of the field, there are still some teams that could surprise. Here are a few of the Cinderella’s, Sleepers and Busts we might see in March.
Cinderella’s – the most likely double-digit seeds in Sweet 16: No. 10 Kansas State (19.1%), No. 11 Miami (17.9%), No. 11 NC Wilmington (15.5%), No. 11 VCU (11.9%), No. 10 Illinois State (10.2), and No. 10 Seton Hall (8.9%).
Sleepers – the most likely 5+ seeds to make Final Four: No. 5 Wisconsin (13.6%), No. 5 Cincinnati (11.4%), No. 5 Purdue (10.7%), No. 5 Duke (8.0%), No. 6 Florida (7.8%), No. 7 SMU (4.1%).
Busts – the least likely 1-4 seeds to make Final Four: No. 4 Notre Dame (7.1%), No. 3 UCLA (7.9%), No. 4 Creighton (8.2%) and No. 3 Oregon (8.3%)
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Below are each team’s chance to advance to the Sweet Sixteen, Final Four and win the national championship.
|Team||Seed||Sweet 16||Final Four||Champion|
|Saint Marys CA||6||30.4||3.6||0.4|
|Middle Tenn St||11||5.4||0.5||0|
|Florida Gulf Coast||14||0.9||0||0|
|New Mexico State||13||2.4||0||0|
|New Orleans U||16||0.1||0||0|
|North Dakota State||15||0.8||0||0|