For the first time since 2004, the Bills are still in playoff contention entering Week 17. In order to break the league’s longest postseason drought, Buffalo will need to beat Miami and have Baltimore lose or win and get a L.A. Chargers loss plus a Tennessee loss. According to the Bet Labs’ simulations, there is a 17.9% chance that they sneak into the playoffs. Those are the longest odds of any AFC team still in the hunt.
Longshot or not, Sean McDermott’s team will be highly motivated on Sunday. With the playoffs on the line, the Bills look like a good bet. Add a Pro System pick on top and Buffalo becomes a great play.
In Week 16, Buffalo lost to New England 37-16. The team was outscored 24-3 in the second half. Teams coming off a blowout loss (20 or more points) are undervalued in their next game, having gone 399-336-17 (54.3%) ATS since 2003. The betting system improves if the rout was at the hands of a good team late in the season.
Casual bettors often overvalue must-win games. In fact, it has been profitable to fade such teams at home in Week 17 (57.5% ATS). Buffalo is the exception. Yes, the Bills are in a must-win game, but the team is favored on the road. Since 2005, teams in this situation have covered the spread 55.0% of the time. We have a Pro System pick and a highly motivated Bills team. If that weren’t enough, the majority of bets and spread dollars have moved Buffalo from -2.5 to -3. Normally, we would fade the public, but historically, Week 17 hasn’t been kind to contrarian bettors. The Bills are longshots to make the playoffs, but Buffalo is a good bet to cover.
14 games with Pro System picks in Week 17
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