After a surprising loss in Week 1 the Patriots dominated the Saints in New Orleans on Sunday. New England will look to carry the momentum over to their next game at home against the Houston Texans. The Pats will face rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson. How have Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots done against rookie quarterbacks?

RookieDateOpponentWonCover
Jared Goff12/4/16RamsYesYes
Cody Kessler10/9/16BrownsYesYes
Marcus Mariota12/20/15TitansYesYes
Derek Carr9/21/14RaidersYesNo
Geno Smith10/20/13JetsNoNo
Geno Smith9/12/13JetsYesNo
EJ Manuel9/8/13BillsYesNo
Ryan Tannehill12/30/12DolphinsYesYes
Ryan Tannehill12/2/12DolphinsYesPush
Andrew Luck11/18/12ColtsYesYes
Russell Wilson10/14/12SeahawksNoNo
Colt McCoy11/7/10BrownsNoNo
Mark Sanchez11/22/09JetsYesYes
Mark Sanchez9/20/09JetsNoNo
Trent Edwards9/23/07BillsYesYes
Vince Young12/31/06TitansYesYes
Luke McCown12/5/04BrownsYesYes
Ben Roethlisberger10/31/04SteelersNoNo
Byron Leftwich12/14/03JaguarsYesYes

Using our massive database of historical betting information, we found 19 games since 2003 where the Patriots faced a first-year quarterback. The Pats went 14-5 straight-up. On average, New England has been favored by 8.4-points when a rookie quarterback is starting for the opposing team. The Patriots have gone 10-8-1 (55.6%) ATS in those games.

New England should beat Houston, they are at home and are the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl. Playing a rookie quarterback will make it easier to get the victory but can the Pats cover the spread? At the time of publication, over 70% of spread bets were on the reigning champs.

On Sunday, Brady and Belichick are 13-point home favorites. In games against rookie quarterbacks as double-digit favorites the Pats are 8-3 ATS.


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