Wild upsets put the Madness in March. The Big Dance tips Thursday but before it does lets look back at some of the biggest upsets in the First Round of the NCAA tournament.

Bet Labs database goes back to the 2004-05 season.

No. 2 Missouri vs. No. 15 Norfolk State – 2012

 

When Norfolk State shocked Missouri it was the first time a 15-seed had upset a 2-seed since 2001. The Spartans were +2250 on the moneyline and the biggest First Round upset in our database. Mizzou losing busted a lot of brackets. President Barack Obama had picked them to make the Final Four that year and per ESPN, only two brackets (out of 6.45 million) in their contest were still perfect after the Tigers went down.

No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 15 Middle Tennessee State – 2016

 

Remember this one? It probably ruined your bracket last year too. Michigan State was a trendy national championship pick after Sparty won the Big Ten tournament. Instead the Blue Raiders (+1529) never trailed in their 90-81 victory. Middle Tennessee is the eighth No. 15 seed to beat a No. 2 seed since seeding began in 1985.

No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 UAB – 2015

 

UAB was +991 on the moneyline and fell behind 12-2 to start the game but rallied to win 60-59. This was the Blazers’ first tournament win since 2005. It was also the third year in a row that a 14-seed had stunned a 3-seed.

Here are the 10 biggest moneyline upsets in the First Round of the tournament.

YearMatchupFavoriteUnderdogUnderdog Moneyline
20122 vs. 15MissouriNorfolk State2250
20162 vs. 15Michigan StateMiddle Tenn1529
20153 vs. 14Iowa StateUAB991
20103 vs. 14GeorgetownOhio925
20143 vs. 14DukeMercer843
20053 vs. 14KansasBucknell820
20132 vs. 15GeorgetownFlorida Gulf Coast733
20084 vs. 13UconnSan Diego620
20122 vs. 15DukeLehigh611
20133 vs. 14New MexicoHarvard516

What teams could crack the top 10 this year? Here are the 10 biggest moneyline dogs heading into the 2017 NCAA tournament.

MatchupFavoriteUnderdogUnderdog Moneyline
1 vs. 16UNCTexas Southern8250
1 vs. 16VillanovaMount St Marys6000
2 vs. 15KentuckyNorthern Kentucky3500
1 vs. 16GonzagaSouth Dakota St3375
2 vs. 15LouisvilleJacksonville St3000
2 vs. 15DukeTroy2000
3 vs. 14UCLAKent2000
2 vs. 15ArizonaNorth Dakota1750
3 vs. 14OregonIone1050
4 vs. 13West VirginiaBucknell850

Naturally the biggest dogs are 16-seeds. Since none have ever beaten a 1-seed it is hard to pick that upset. Could Bucknell become a Cinderella with a win over West Virginia? According to our simulations the Bison have the best chance (7.7%) of any team +850 or better. If you are wondering, none of the underdogs listed have value on the moneyline.


2017 NCAA Tournament

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