The over/under for the Packers-Falcons NFC Championship game opened at 58.5 at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. Bettors have been pounding the OVER and now the total is at 61.
— Bet Labs Sports (@Bet_Labs) January 16, 2017
The line movement is significant and the total is likely to close as not only the biggest we have tracked in our database for the postseason but in all games.
Bettors are expecting a shootout, but will the game go over the total?
In the 3,500+ NFL games that we have in our database, less than 10% of games feature a total of 50 or more points and only 1% have totals of 55 points or higher.
The public likes to bet the OVER, in 41 games in the Bet Labs database with totals of 55 or more points, at least 60% of the bets were on the OVER.
Fading the public in these games with huge totals has been profitable as the UNDER is 23-18, +3.49 units.
However, if you look at the games with the most extreme totals (57 points or more) the OVER is 8-4 and in games with totals of more than 57 points the OVER is 7-0.
Vegas has been getting crushed by the public in the playoffs. Currently 70% of the bets and over 80% of the money, per SportsInsights.com, are on the OVER. If the Packers-Falcons game goes OVER it could be another bad day for the bookmakers.
Conference Championships start Sunday