The Brewers, Astros, Rockies and Diamondbacks were the most profitable moneyline teams in the 1st half of the season. One series after the All-Star break the teams combined to go 5-7, -3.46 units. Should bettors fade profitable MLB teams in the 2nd Half of the season?

To find out I compared first half and second half results for the most profitable teams at the All-Star break going back to 2010.

2016

Team1st Half Record1st Half Units2nd Half Record2nd Half Units2nd Half Fade
Rangers54-36+25.041-31+2.7-8.2
Giants57-33+11.530-42-16.2+20.5
Orioles51-36+10.438-37+0.9-2.2
Marlins47-41+7.432-41-7.8+8.3
Indians52-36+6.342-31-3.6-3.9

2015

Team1st Half Record1st Half Units2nd Half Record2nd Half Units2nd Half Fade
Twins49-40+17.033-39+1.2-1.1
Royals52-34+16.043-32+4.9-7.6
Cardinals56-33+11.344-28+3.5-8.2
Rangers42-46+9.346-28+18.1-22.1
Pirates53-35+6.145-29+7.3-12.9

2014

Team1st Half Record1st Half Units2nd Half Record2nd Half Units2nd Half Fade
Orioles52-42+12.9544-24+18.93-21.84
Mariners51-44+8.4736-31-2.17-0.58
Athletics59-36+8.2629-38-21.18+25.58
Angels57-37+7.2741-27+6.21-11.09
Brewers53-43+6.5629-37-10.15+9.50

2013

Team1st Half Record1st Half Units2nd Half Record2nd Half Units2nd Half Fade
Pirates56-37+21.4138-31+2.31-1.81
Athletics56-39+10.3840-27+5.69-5.49
Indians51-44+9.9541-26+5.44-15.66
Orioles53-43+9.3232-34-6.63+4.99
Cardinals57-36+8.8540-29+0.38-6.00

2012

Team1st Half Record1st Half Units2nd Half Record2nd Half Units2nd Half Fade
Pirates48-37+1631-45-16.86+15.72
Orioles45-40+13.0848-29+23.95-20.89
Mets46-40+10.1228-48-17.67+17.95
Nationals49-34+8.2249-30+7.65-16.45
Athletics42-42+8.251-25+26.92-28.39

2011

Team1st Half Record1st Half Units2nd Half Record2nd Half Units2nd Half Fade
Pirates47-43+13.9925-47-13.21+12.10
Indians47-42+8.2433-40-8.20+2.98
Dbacks49-43+845-25+16.11-18.61
Braves54-38+7.535-35-7.11+6.85
Mets46-45+7.4431-40-4.65+5.00

2010

Team1st Half Record1st Half Units2nd Half Record2nd Half Units2nd Half Fade
Padres51-37+15.3139-35+1.72-1.78
White Sox49-38+8.9339-36+2.45-2.03
Mets48-40+8.9231-43-11.26+7.80
Rays54-34+7.3142-32-0.60-2.24
Reds49-41+7.1242-30+5.76-10.03

Since 2010, betting the five most profitable moneyline teams at the All-Star break every game in the second half would have won +14.83 units. Fading those teams would have cost bettors -91.82 units. It isn’t wise to fade the most profitable 1st half teams.

What about the least profitable teams, should you bet them expecting a bounce back in the second half?

2016

Team1st Half Record1st Half Units2nd Half Record2nd Half Units2nd Half Fade
Rays34-54-20.934-40-4.1+0.6
Twins32-56-16.627-47-11.6+8.9
Reds32-57-16.236-37+7.6-8.0
Angels37-52-12.737-36+4.1-10.3
Diamondbacks38-52-11.331-41-5.80.0

2015

Team1st Half Record1st Half Units2nd Half Record2nd Half Units2nd Half Fade
Phillies29-62-22.834-37+14.5-12.0
Athletics41-50-13.227-44-11.3+9.6
Brewers38-52-11.630-42-7.2+2.4
Mariners41-48-10.835-38-5.1+1.9
Indians42-46-9.939-341.4-2.6

2014

Team1st Half Record1st Half Units2nd Half Record2nd Half Units2nd Half Fade
Rangers38-57-20.8129-38+2.37-2.65
Rockies40-55-15.4126-40-12.56+1.22
Rays44-53-15.1433-32-2.71+2.62
Red Sox43-52-14.9228-39-6.14+4.71
Dbacks40-56-12.2824-42-16.20+8.59

2013

20131st Half Record1st Half Units2nd Half Record2nd Half Units2nd Half Fade
White Sox37-55-16.2826-44-13.79+8.23
Brewers38-56-15.8836-32+10.81-11.09
Giants43-51-14.2933-35-0.58+3.46
Angels44-49-11.3734-35-1.48-2.42
Tigers52-42-8.7341-27-0.70-2.27

2012

Team1st Half Record1st Half Units2nd Half Record2nd Half Units2nd Half Fade
Phillies37-50-18.8543-31+6.01-9.16
Rockies33-52-13.8531-45-3.06+0.34
Astros33-53-12.5822-54-18.96+8.59
Padres34-53-12.3942-33+15.5-16.44
Cubs33-52-11.328-49-15.19+5.67

2011

Team1st Half Record1st Half Units2nd Half Record2nd Half Units2nd Half Fade
Astros30-62-25.2426-44-7.8+2.1
Cubs37-55-15.9634-36+2.1-4.59
Athletics39-53-15.8635-35+2.91-4.29
Orioles36-52-14.2333-41+9.06-4.3
Rockies43-48-11.3430-41-11.63+6.76

2010

Team1st Half Record1st Half Units2nd Half Record2nd Half Units2nd Half Fade
Mariners35-53-18.6926-48-16.01+10.36
Dbacks34-55-18.1831-42-6.78+0.88
Orioles29-59-14.0337-37+14.82-12.2
Cubs39-50-12.5736-37+6.54-3.2
Pirates30-58-12.1427-47-10.03+5.9

The data suggests betting the worst teams to bounce back after the All-Star is a losing wager. Since 2010, betting the 1st half’s five least profitable teams have cost bettors -91.0 units in the second half. Fading those teams has also been a loser but it is only down -12.68 units.

When it comes to second half betting, there is no value fading the most and least profitable moneyline teams.


MLB Totals

Bet Labs Over/Under Pro Systems are +17.2 units in 2017

Unlock these systems now