Once the NL Wild Card Game is done tonight the divisional series will be set. To get you ready for the next round of the playoffs here is what you need to know about betting on the postseason.

No Home Field Advantage 

In the NBA and NFL, home teams win at least five percent more of games in the playoffs than the regular season but not in baseball. According to Sports Action there is no MLB postseason bump. It has been profitable to bet road dogs.

Rest vs. Rust 

When the Indians-Yankees begin their division series it will have been four days since Cleveland played. Will the Indians be rested or rusty with the extra days off?

Using the “Days Between Games” filter we can see there is no advantage or disadvantage to having extra days off.

Days OffRecordUnits
2145-149-7.22
333-29+0.98
421-22+1.57
513-14+0.16
6 or more6-5+2.13

Zig-Zag Theory

A well-known betting strategy is the Zig-Zag Theory, which simply takes a team if they lost their previous game. The reasoning behind this system is that teams will try harder to avoid elimination after a loss but that’s not the case. Betting teams that lost the previous game has cost bettors -23.87 units since 2005.

Lost Previous Game as a Favorite

Since the Zig-Zag Theory doesn’t work, fading teams off a loss is a sharp play. Contrarian bettors can profit by going against a team that lost the previous game as a favorite and is receiving 50% or more of moneyline bets in the next game.

Bet Against the Public

We covered this before the postseason started but betting against the public is a profitable strategy in the playoffs. It works in every round after the Wild Card games.


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