It’s just one game but casual bettors overreact to the first week in college football. The higher the profile of the game and the larger the margin of defeat the quicker gamblers will push the panic button. Square bettors will fade teams that disappointed in the first game of the season but there is value betting teams after a high-profile Week 1 loss.
What is the definition of a high-profile game? We are going to say any contest featuring a team ranked in the top 10 of the AP Poll. There were nine such games this year in the opening weekend.
If you blindly bet a team in Week 2 after they played a top-10 team to begin the season you would have gone 56-42 (57.1%) ATS since 2005. If that team lost the win rate improves to 59.5% (50-34 ATS). The bigger the margin of the defeat the more value the team has the next weekend.
|Margin of Defeat||ATS Record||Units||ROI|
|All losses||50-34 (59.5%)||+13.2||15.7%|
|7 or more points||46-30 (60.5%)||+13.5||17.8%|
|14 or more points||38-23 (62.3%)||+12.9||21.2%|
|21 or more points||31-18 (63.3%)||+11.4||23.3%|
The sample gets small but teams off a blowout loss (21 or more points) in Week 1 to a top-10 team have gone 31-18 (63.3%) ATS in Week 2.
Indiana, Utah State, UTEP, Tulsa, Kent, and Akron got waxed to start the season. Casual bettors will likely fade these teams but that would be a mistake. There has been value buying back on a team after a high-profile Week 1 loss.
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