Last year was one of the highest scoring in NFL history. The touchdown parade didn’t continue in Week 1. Low scoring games helped the Under go 10-2 on Sunday. Bad performances (see Dalton, Andy) were the most likely cause for the point drought. It is unlikely that more than half the league fails to score fewer than 21 points in Week 2 but will casual bettors overreact to one game? Yes, yes they will. Bet the Over when both teams go Under early in the season.
Best time to bet against the public?
Week 2 in #NFL
Teams getting 30% or less of spread bets: 61% ATS since 2003 pic.twitter.com/FeBKKb4L8J
— Bet Labs Sports (@Bet_Labs) September 13, 2017
Betting against the public is a great strategy in football. The best time of the year to go against casual bettors is Week 2 when they overreact to the first game of the season. This applies to betting the spread and over/unders.
If two teams in a matchup both went Under their total the previous game, betting the Over has been profitable.
Since 2003, betting the Over in a game when both teams went Under the week before has gone 419-363, 53.6%. The best time to place these wagers is early in the season, again so we can take advantage of bettors putting too much emphasis on a small sample of player/team performances.
It’s no coincidence that three of the five best weeks to be contrarian and bet the Over is in the Weeks 2-4. The Over hits at 63.0% in games when both teams went Under the previous week early in the season.
With so many low scoring games in Week 1 there are a number of matches for this system. The first is on Thursday Night Football. Houston and Cincy combined to score seven points in their opening game of the season. The total for tonight’s game opened 38 and bets are evenly split but historically there has been value betting the Over early in the season when both teams went Under the previous game.
2017 NFL Pro Systems
NFL Picks are 5-1, +3.71 units to start the season