A trip to paradise turned into a nightmare for the Arizona Wildcats. The former No. 2 team in the country fell out of the polls after losing three straight over the holiday weekend in the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas. Sean Miller’s team is the first to go from No. 2 to unranked in a week since Louisville in 1986-87 (per ESPN).
The Wildcats (-23.5) are expected to right the ship with a win tonight at home over Long Beach State. Should gamblers bet or fade Arizona?
This is a simple question with a simple answer. Do the opposite of the public. Here are how teams from power conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC) have performed when on a losing streak of two or three games.
|Spread Ticket %||ATS Record||ROI|
When recreational bettors fade teams from a power conference on a losing streak, contrarian bettors can profit. The sweet spot is teams getting less than 30% of spread ticket (55.4%) ATS. Unfortunately, more than 60% of spread bets are on Arizona as big favorites.
I’m staying away from this game but Arizona won’t be the last team from the big boy conferences to hit a rough patch. When a team goes on a skid, fading the public is the right strategy.
Spread Dollars %
|Spread Dollar %||ATS Record||ROI|
We’ve only been tracking spread dollars for the last three seasons but the results have been promising. Going against the public based on money wagered improves the success rate for betting teams on a losing streak. Again, Arizona’s game tonight (53% of spread dollars on the Wildcats) is not a match but Bet Labs users should keep this in mind going forward.