It is exhausting playing a seven game series in the Stanley Cup playoffs. If a series goes the distance, is there value betting the UNDER in Game 7?
For those short on time, the answer is Yes.
When teams are fresh early in a series, Games 1-4, the UNDER has gone 295-291 (50.3%), -28.8 units since 2005.
However, in Game 7, fatigue as well as the familiarity with an opponent (players and managers make adjustments) leads to the UNDER cashing.
Since 2005, the UNDER in Game 7s is 26-16 (61.9%), +6.27 units. Since 2010, the win rate is even better. The UNDER has gone 21-9 (70.0%), +8.97 units in the last seven playoffs.
This is a small sample but when predicting the winner in Game 7s is nearly impossible, it is nice to have a solid trend.
2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs
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