Since 2003, every team in the NFL has more straight-up wins at home than on the road. Yet, when it comes to betting, home field advantage is overrated in the NFL.

In the last 15 years, home teams have covered the spread 48.8% of the time in regular season games, -158.39 units. Still, casual bettors consistently overvalue the home team assuming that a raucous crowd can impact the outcome of games.

A great time to fade a home team is after the club has played its first two games on the road. The Eagles, Jets and Cardinals are set to make their home opener in Week 3.

There is value betting against NFL teams in Week 3 home openers

YearATS Record
20163-1
20153-2
20142-1
20131-1-1
20122-0
20113-2
20103-0
20092-0
20081-0
20072-0-1
20061-1
20051-0
20040-2
20032-2

Since 2003, fading teams in Week 3 home openers has gone 26-12-2 (68.4%) ATS.

Arizona and New York are home underdogs in Week 3. Less than 30% of spread bets are on the Cardinals and Jets to cover but at CRIS the lines in each game have moved toward the home team. At Pinnacle, Philly opened as 5-point favorites but are now favored by 6-points over the division rival Giants.

Don’t follow the line movement in these Week 3 home openers, fade the Eagles, Jets and Cardinals in their first game in friendly confines.


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