Since 2005 there has been value betting underdogs in baseball. Many of our Pro Systems are built on betting moneyline dogs.
However, there is one day a year where favorites shine. In the first game after the All-Star break favorites have been profitable.
There are a couple explanations for why favorites would succeed in the first game of the second half. First, the extra rest helps all players but would be more beneficial to good teams as they already have the superior talent. Second, motivation is key. Favorites are likely good teams still in contention and these potential playoff teams will be trying their hardest to win.
This system improves when a team is favored against an opponent with a losing record. This supports our theory that goods teams are more motivated than bad teams.
Betting favorites against bad teams after the All-Star break has been profitable in all but two seasons since 2005. Lines haven’t posted for Friday’s slate but with every team in action there will be plenty of opportunities to make money on the favorites.
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This Pro System is +100.2 units since 2005