A Twitter user asked if there were any over/under betting trends for a day game after a doubleheader. Great question. We’ve shown that there is value on the favorite in the second game of a doubleheader but should you be the OVER or UNDER in a day game after a doubleheader?
First, we will use the “Home Games in Last N Days” filter. This captures every instance where teams played two games in the previous day.
Then we want to look specifically at day games. We will define a day game as starting on or before 4 pm ET.
Where is the value on the total?
Turns out betting the OVER has been profitable for teams in day games after a doubleheader. This could be counterintuitive to many casual bettors who might believe a team playing a day game after a doubleheader would be fatigued and score fewer runs.
In games with low totals (8 runs or fewer) the OVER is 17-21, -5.28 units since 2005 in day games after a doubleheader. The OVER in games expected to be high scoring (totals of 9 or more) has gone 36-19 (65.5%), +15.7 units.
It appears fatigue is not an issue for teams playing early games after a doubleheader and there has historically been value betting the OVER. However, the results have not been consistent enough from year to year to become a Pro System.
Here is a list of doubleheaders scheduled for 2017. Two will be played this Saturday, July 1st and the teams will play day games on Sunday.
MLB Over/Under Pro Systems
Over/Under picks are 90-69 (57%), +18.9 units in 2017