What to do when you can’t sleep? Some people count sheep. Personally, I build betting systems. Last night, I was restless after a thrilling 13-9 game on Thursday Night Football. Catching some z’s wasn’t a possibility so I stayed up into the wee hours of the morning building a winning betting system. My insomnia is your potential gain.
Last week, I showed that it was profitable fading ranked teams in Week 2 home openers. I was curious if the trend continued for teams having their home opener in Week 3. Unfortunately, we don’t have filters that easily answer this question. It would take some manual calculations to find. Procrastination ensued.
At some point early Friday morning, I discovered that very few ranked teams (12 total since 2005) play two straight on the road to start a season. There would be little gained researching how they perform in a Week 3 home opener. In need of a larger sample I expanded my search to all FBS teams that played two straight on the road (or neutral site) before debuting in front of the home crowd.
The sample swelled to 86 FBS teams since 2005 that played two straight away from home before getting a game in friendly confines. Those teams in Week 3 home openers went 50-36 (58.1%) ATS.
Why is this system profitable? The majority of teams that match this system are from non-Power 5 conferences, the Florida International and Toledo’s of the college football world. Often these teams begin the year in hostile environments against the best teams in the country. They are the cream filling in the cupcake schedules so often seen in early non-conference play.
Casual bettors see these teams getting beat up by the powerhouses of college football for two straight weeks and assume they are bad. However, give them a home game and a stepdown (most of the time) in competition and these teams making their Week 3 home openers can be profitable.
Teams that match in Week 3 2017:
- New Mexico State
- South Carolina
- Western Michigan
Most intriguing is No. 14 Louisville vs. No. 3 Clemson. The Cardinals are 3-point home dogs. If Corso picks the Tigers I’m definitely backing Lamar Jackson at home.
Next time you are tossing and turning in bed, build a winning system, just like me!
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College Football Pro System picks started 63-47 (57%) in 2017