The Browns (0-10) are the worst team in football. Cleveland ranks 32nd in our Power Ratings, and are the only winless team in the NFL.
Entering Week 12, 28 franchises still had an outside shot at making the playoffs according to our simulations. The Browns were eliminated from postseason contention by our numbers in Week 6, some would argue that was six weeks too long.
0-16 is a real possibility, which prompted this question on Twitter.
@Bet_Labs better to take +900 on Browns going winless or fading them on the ML and rolling it over 6 times? TIA
— Mike Cordaro (@MikeCordaro1) November 21, 2017
Despite the Browns ineptitude, we aren’t high on their chances of going defeated. Using our 10,000 simulations, there is just a 15.4% chance that Cleveland joins the 2008 Detroit Lions in the 0-16 club.
The team’s remaining schedule includes the Bengals, Chargers, Packers, Ravens, Bears and Steelers. Only Pittsburgh is above .500 and the Steelers might not have anything to play for in the Week 17 showdown with the Browns.
It might not be probable but this doesn’t mean there isn’t value betting on Cleveland finishing the season with six more losses. I couldn’t find the Browns +900 to go 0-16 like Mike mentioned but Bovada and 5Dimes are offering the following props:
Will the Browns go 0-16?
- Yes: +600 (Bovada), +300 (5Dimes)
- No: -1200 (Bovada), -420 (5Dimes)
Bovada’s “Yes” odds have an implied probability of 14.3%. That means there is value placing a wager at +600 odds on Cleveland going 0-16. Feel like the team will get at least one win? Using 5Dimes, gamblers can get an edge on “No” -420 (80.8% implied probability).
Can bettors return a greater profit by fading Cleveland and rolling over the moneyline? Cincy is -370 on the moneyline in Week 12 (bet $100 to win $27). We don’t have future moneylines for each of Cleveland’s remaining games but we can use a rough estimate. On average, opponents this year have been -300 moneyline favorites against the AFC North bottom dweller.
If you started with $100 and bet the team facing the Browns the next six weeks (-370 for CIN but -300 ML for each remaining team) your bankroll at the end of the season would be $533 approximately.
If you bet “Yes” at Bovada, a $100 wager returns $600 in profit for a total of $700. For Mike and others like him, it is more advantageous to wager on the Browns going 0-16 than rolling over the moneyline.