The conference finals will start next week. The Warriors and Cavaliers have punched their tickets with sweeps in the conference semifinals. In total, six teams still have a chance to win the NBA championship. Bet anyone but the Cavs to win the title.
Seriously, you can bet any team other than the defending champions to win the title and get value. To determine if a team has value we first crowdsourced four projection systems (ESPN BPI, numberFire, PredictionMachine and Basketball-Reference) to create a consensus NBA projection. Then we looked at what the current odds are to win the title at 5Dimes and compare that to the consensus projections each team would win the championship.
LeBron and the Cavs are +310 to repeat. In order for us to feel comfortable wagering on Cleveland they would need to win it all 24.4% (100/(100+310) of the time. The LeBrons have a consensus chance of 8.8% to win, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +310 odds.
The Warriors on the other hand are the oddsmakers favorites. The implied chance that Golden State wins its second title in three seasons is 69.5%. The projection systems have the Dubs winning it all 72.3% of the time. So feel free to wager on the favorite.
The same is true for the Spurs, Rockets, Celtics and Wizards. San Antonio offers the most value, as Gregg Popovich’s team is nearly twice as likely to the franchise’s sixth title than the odds suggest.
Celtics vs. Wizards Game 5
There is betting system for this game that is 112-78 (58.9%) ATS
Consensus NBA Championship Value Bets
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