The NFC South is wide open and a case can be made for anyone to come out on top this year. Which team has the best chance? We answer that question and more by looking at how to bet the 2017 NFC South.
Our projections are based on 10,000 simulations of the 2017 NFL season using team statistics and adjusting for Strength of Schedule.
The Falcons ended the Panthers three year run of division titles in 2016 and are the favorites, both betting and according to the simulations, to win the NFC South in 2017. Little separates Atlanta and Carolina, with plus-money prices both squads have value to win the division.
|Team||Win Division||Odds (5Dimes)|
|New Orleans Saints||15.4%||+490|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||13.0%||+340|
Make the Playoffs
It has been three years since the division sent multiple teams to the playoffs. Right now, we have both Atlanta and Carolina in our most likely postseason. There is no value on the Falcons but the Panthers +100 is worth a bet. So too are the Saints +270.
There is a lot of hype around the Bucs this summer. Jameis Winston is expected to take another step forward with the additions of DeSean Jackson and tight end O.J. Howard. After a solid performance from the defense last year many think Tampa can make a run at the division. Yet, by our numbers its another fourth place finish in the NFC South for the Bucs and there is valuing betting that the team won’t make the playoffs.
|Team||Playoff Probabilities||Make Playoffs||Miss Playoffs|
|New Orleans Saints||29.4%||+270||-330|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||25.2%||+155||-175|
Season Win Total
Best win total bets in the NFC South in 2017: Saints OVER 8 (+116), Falcons UNDER 9.5 (-121) and Bucs UNDER 8.5 (-120).
|Atlanta Falcons||9.5 (+100)||9.5 (-121)||25.5||74.5|
|Carolina Panthers||9 (-110)||9 (-110)||50.5||49.5|
|New Orleans Saints||8 (+116)||8 (-140)||48.6||51.4|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||8.5 (+100)||8.5 (-120)||32.1||67.9|
Win the Super Bowl
The division has featured the Super Bowl runner-up in back-to-back years. Atlanta is the most likely team to win the title but with less than a 1-in-20 chance. There is no value betting any team from the NFC South to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
|Team||Win Super Bowl||Odds (5Dimes)|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||0.8%||+3800|
|New Orleans Saints||0.6%||+5700|
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