The NFC South is wide open and a case can be made for anyone to come out on top this year. Which team has the best chance? We answer that question and more by looking at how to bet the 2017 NFC South.

Our projections are based on 10,000 simulations of the 2017 NFL season using team statistics and adjusting for Strength of Schedule.

Division Odds 

The Falcons ended the Panthers three year run of division titles in 2016 and are the favorites, both betting and according to the simulations, to win the NFC South in 2017. Little separates Atlanta and Carolina, with plus-money prices both squads have value to win the division.

TeamWin DivisionOdds (5Dimes)
Atlanta Falcons38.9%+172
Carolina Panthers32.7%+235
New Orleans Saints15.4%+490
Tampa Bay Buccaneers13.0%+340

Make the Playoffs 

It has been three years since the division sent multiple teams to the playoffs. Right now, we have both Atlanta and Carolina in our most likely postseason. There is no value on the Falcons but the Panthers +100 is worth a bet. So too are the Saints +270.

There is a lot of  hype around the Bucs this summer. Jameis Winston is expected to take another step forward with the additions of DeSean Jackson and tight end O.J. Howard. After a solid performance from the defense last year many think Tampa can make a run at the division. Yet, by our numbers its another fourth place finish in the NFC South for the Bucs and there is valuing betting that the team won’t make the playoffs.

TeamPlayoff ProbabilitiesMake PlayoffsMiss Playoffs
Atlanta Falcons57.6%-145+125
Carolina Panthers52.5%+100-120
New Orleans Saints29.4%+270-330
Tampa Bay Buccaneers25.2%+155-175

Season Win Total

Best win total bets in the NFC South in 2017: Saints OVER 8 (+116), Falcons UNDER 9.5 (-121) and Bucs UNDER 8.5 (-120).

TeamOverUnderOver%Under%
Atlanta Falcons9.5 (+100)9.5 (-121)25.574.5
Carolina Panthers9 (-110)9 (-110)50.549.5
New Orleans Saints8 (+116)8 (-140)48.651.4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers8.5 (+100)8.5 (-120)32.167.9

Win the Super Bowl

The division has featured the Super Bowl runner-up in back-to-back years. Atlanta is the most likely team to win the title but with less than a 1-in-20 chance. There is no value betting any team from the NFC South to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

TeamWin Super BowlOdds (5Dimes)
Atlanta Falcons4.5%+1400
Carolina Panthers2.9%+3200
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0.8%+3800
New Orleans Saints0.6%+5700

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