The Bears are rebuilding, the Vikings and Lions will start below average quarterbacks, once again the division belongs to the Green Bay Packers. Here is how to bet the 2017 NFC North.

Our projections are based on 10,000 simulations of the 2017 NFL season using team statistics and adjusting for Strength of Schedule.

Division Odds

Green Bay has a 64.9% chance to win the division for a second straight year and a sixth time in seven seasons. Unfortunately, at -200 odds there is no value backing Aaron Rodgers and crew. In fact, no team has value as the oddsmakers have appropriately priced each team.

TeamWin DivisionOdds (5Dimes)
Green Bay Packers64.9%-200
Minnesota Vikings21.1%+365
Detroit Lions12.0%+625
Chicago Bears2.0%+2250

Season Win Total 

The most likely result for each member in the division is to go under their season win total. Only Minnesota UNDER 8.5 (+105) has value.

Chicago Bears5.5 (+101)5.5 (-122)48.751.3
Detroit Lions7.5 (+110)7.5 (-130)47.152.9
Green Bay Packers10.5 (+131)10.5 (-160)42.257.8
Minnesota Vikings8.5 (-127)8.5 (+105)44.755.3

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Make the Playoffs 

It has been almost a decade since the Packers last missed the playoffs. Green Bay has a 76.9% chance of returning to the playoffs for a ninth straight season. At -300 odds, there is value on the Cheeseheads.

After starting 5-0, the Vikings lost 8 of their last 11 games to miss the playoffs in 2016. There is a 62.8% chance that Minnesota is on the outside looking once again in 2017. Bet that Bradford (-165) won’t lead the Purple and Gold to the playoffs.

Chicago (-1700) is a big favorite to miss the postseason. Though it’s not fun to wager $1,700 to win $100 there is a 95.6% chance we don’t see the Bears play past Week 17.

TeamPlayoff ProbabilitiesMake PlayoffsMiss Playoffs
Chicago Bears4.4%+1100-1700
Detroit Lions22.9%+290-350
Green Bay Packers76.9%-300+250
Minnesota Vikings37.2%+145 -165

Win the Super Bowl

The Pack are one of just four teams with better than a 9% chance of lifting the Lombardi Trophy in 2017 but there is no value backing Green Bay or any other team in the division.

TeamWin Super BowlOdds (5Dimes)
Green Bay Packers9.4%+950
Minnesota Vikings1.2%+3500
Detroit Lions0.5%+6000
Chicago Bears0.02%+18500