The Bears are rebuilding, the Vikings and Lions will start below average quarterbacks, once again the division belongs to the Green Bay Packers. Here is how to bet the 2017 NFC North.
Our projections are based on 10,000 simulations of the 2017 NFL season using team statistics and adjusting for Strength of Schedule.
Green Bay has a 64.9% chance to win the division for a second straight year and a sixth time in seven seasons. Unfortunately, at -200 odds there is no value backing Aaron Rodgers and crew. In fact, no team has value as the oddsmakers have appropriately priced each team.
|Team||Win Division||Odds (5Dimes)|
|Green Bay Packers||64.9%||-200|
Season Win Total
The most likely result for each member in the division is to go under their season win total. Only Minnesota UNDER 8.5 (+105) has value.
|Chicago Bears||5.5 (+101)||5.5 (-122)||48.7||51.3|
|Detroit Lions||7.5 (+110)||7.5 (-130)||47.1||52.9|
|Green Bay Packers||10.5 (+131)||10.5 (-160)||42.2||57.8|
|Minnesota Vikings||8.5 (-127)||8.5 (+105)||44.7||55.3|
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Make the Playoffs
It has been almost a decade since the Packers last missed the playoffs. Green Bay has a 76.9% chance of returning to the playoffs for a ninth straight season. At -300 odds, there is value on the Cheeseheads.
After starting 5-0, the Vikings lost 8 of their last 11 games to miss the playoffs in 2016. There is a 62.8% chance that Minnesota is on the outside looking once again in 2017. Bet that Bradford (-165) won’t lead the Purple and Gold to the playoffs.
Chicago (-1700) is a big favorite to miss the postseason. Though it’s not fun to wager $1,700 to win $100 there is a 95.6% chance we don’t see the Bears play past Week 17.
|Team||Playoff Probabilities||Make Playoffs||Miss Playoffs|
|Green Bay Packers||76.9%||-300||+250|
Win the Super Bowl
The Pack are one of just four teams with better than a 9% chance of lifting the Lombardi Trophy in 2017 but there is no value backing Green Bay or any other team in the division.
|Team||Win Super Bowl||Odds (5Dimes)|
|Green Bay Packers||9.4%||+950|