The NFC East is expected to be competitive once again. Dallas is the defending champions but the Ezekiel Elliott suspension has put a dark cloud over the team’s season outlook. If Zeke misses games can another team knock the Cowboys from the top spot in the division? Here is how to bet the 2017 NFC East.
Our projections are based on 10,000 simulations of the 2017 NFL season using team statistics and adjusting for Strength of Schedule.
When Zeke’s suspension was announced the Giants became the betting favorites to win the division. However, Dallas is once again the oddsmakers pick with the possibility of their star running back receiving a reduced suspension. At +172 odds, there is value on the Cowboys to win the division in back-to-back years.
|Team||Win Division||Odds (5Dimes)|
|New York Giants||24.5%||+220|
Season Win Total
Maybe the division will be competitive because no team is that great. The most likely record for each team is 9-7 or 8-8. No team is expected to top its season win total but there is value on Dallas OVER 9.5 (+135). The Cowboys win 10 or more games 49.7% of the time.
The best UNDER bet is Eagles 8.5 (-112). There is a 62.1% chance that Philly wins 8 or fewer games, a disappointing result for a franchise with a young quarterback that started 3-0 a season ago.
|Dallas Cowboys||9.5 (+135)||9.5 (-165)||49.7||50.3|
|New York Giants||8.5 (-127)||8.5 (+105)||48.6||51.4|
|Philadelphia Eagles||8.5 (-108)||8.5 (-112)||37.9||62.1|
|Washington Redskins||7.5 (+113)||7.5 (-136)||47.6||52.4|
Make the Playoffs
Dallas is the most likely team to make the playoffs from the division. At -105, the odds imply there is a 51.2% chance the Cowboys return to the postseason. By our simulations the team plays past Week 17 62.6% of the time. There is value betting Jerry’s team to make the playoffs.
No other team has value to make the playoffs but the Giants (-125) to miss the postseason does have value. This is a contrarian bet as many casual gamblers think New York is the team to back if Zeke is suspended.
|Team||Playoff Probabilities||Make Playoffs||Miss Playoffs|
|New York Giants||41.2||+105||-125|
Win the Super Bowl
Dak Prescott and the ‘Boys were the No. 1 seed in the NFC last year but failed to advance to the big game. Expectations are high once again for Dallas (+1225) but there is no value to bet the Cowboys to end their Super Bowl drought. No team in the NFC East is worth a bet either.
|Team||Win Super Bowl||Odds (5Dimes)|
|New York Giants||1.6%||+1750|
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