Raiders, Chiefs, Broncos or Chargers, who you got winning the division this year? We answer that question and more by looking at how to bet the 2017 AFC West.
Our projections are based on 10,000 simulations of the 2017 NFL season using team statistics and adjusting for Strength of Schedule.
Division Odds
The Raiders finished above .500 and made the playoffs for the first time since 2002 last year. Derek Carr should be fully recovered from his leg injury to lead one of the best offenses in the league and reigning Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack anchors a unit that improved from 26th to 15th in DVOA. Oakland is the betting favorite and our pick to win the division. With a 44.0% chance to win its first division title in 14 years there is value on the Raiders to win the AFC West.
| Team | Win Division | Odds (5Dimes) |
|---|---|---|
| Oakland Raiders | 44.0% | +178 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 29.6% | +245 |
| Denver Broncos | 13.3% | +450 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 13.1% | +350 |
Make the Playoffs
The AFC West has sent multiple teams to the postseason in three of the last four years. We expect two teams to make the playoffs from the division once again in 2017. This is going to sound counterintuitive but there is no value betting any team to make the playoffs. In fact, each team has value to miss out on the postseason. Math is fun!
| Team | Playoff Probabilities | Make Playoffs | Miss Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Raiders | 60.1% | -175 | +155 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 46.8% | -125 | +105 |
| Denver Broncos | 25.6% | +175 | -210 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 24.5% | +240 | -280 |
Season Win Total
Win totals with value: Broncos UNDER 8.5 (-165), Chiefs UNDER 9 (-120) and Charges UNDER 7.5 (+129).
| Team | Over | Under | Over% | Under% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 8.5 (+135) | 8.5 (-165) | 30.2 | 69.8 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 9 (+100) | 9 (-120) | 42.3 | 57.7 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 7.5 (-158) | 7.5 (+129) | 48.5 | 51.5 |
| Oakland Raiders | 9.5 (+110) | 9.5 (-133) | 45.2 | 54.8 |
Win the Super Bowl
The Raiders and Chiefs were 12-win playoff teams from a season ago, the Broncos have a championship caliber defense and the Chargers are finally healthy on offense. These are the narratives you’d tell yourself if you place a Super Bowl futures bet on any AFC West team but this division doesn’t feature the eventual champion. There is no value to be found here.
| Team | Win Super Bowl | Odds (5Dimes) |
|---|---|---|
| Oakland Raiders | 4.1% | +1675 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 2.2% | +2500 |
| Denver Broncos | 0.6% | +3050 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.4% | +5350 |
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