It is a three-team race in the AFC South. Tennessee is the favorite to win the division but little separates the Titans from the Colts and Texans. Which team will finish on top? We answer that question and more by looking at how to bet the 2017 AFC South.

Our projections are based on 10,000 simulations of the 2017 NFL season using team statistics and adjusting for Strength of Schedule.

Division Odds 

It has been eight years since the Titans last won the AFC South. Tennessee is the most likely team to win the division in 2017 and with +172 odds there is value betting it to happen. Indy is another team with value assuming Andrew Luck plays but he is doubtful for the start of the season.

TeamWin DivisionOdds (5Dimes)
Tennessee Titans38.8%+172
Indianapolis Colts25.7%+310
Houston Texans23.9%+203
Jacksonville Jaguars11.6%+700

Make the Playoffs 

As the division winner, Tennessee is more than 50% likely to make the playoffs. The Titans are +125, the implied probability is 44.4%. Value betting on Marcus Mariota and crew. There is also value on the Colts but again, you need to have confidence in Luck playing in order to place that bet.

Both the Texans and Jaguars are fades this year. Houston (-160) and Jacksonville (-425) have value to miss the playoffs.

TeamPlayoff ProbabilitiesMake PlayoffsMiss Playoffs
Houston Texans34.9%+140-160
Indianapolis Colts37.3%+200-240
Jacksonville Jaguars19.0%+340-425
Tennessee Titans51.3%+125-145

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Season Win Total

Win totals with value: Colts OVER 8 (+136) – assuming Luck is healthy, Texans UNDER 8.5 (-108) and Titans UNDER 8.5 (+142).

TeamOverUnderOver%Under%
Houston Texans8.5 (-112)8.5 (-108)39.260.8
Indianapolis Colts8 (+136)8 (-167)52.147.9
Jacksonville Jaguars6.5 (-155)6.5 (+127)58.741.3
Tennessee Titans8.5 (-175)8.5 (+142)55.144.9

Win the Super Bowl

The division is full of longshots to win the Super Bowl but even at odds of 30/1 or better there is no value.

TeamWin Super BowlOdds (5Dimes)
Tennessee Titans1.7%+4000
Houston Texans0.9%+2850
Indianapolis Colts0.6%+3500
Jacksonville Jaguars0.2%+9000