Sunday night we get a critical division bout between the Cowboys and Eagles. Philly can all but clinch the division with a win over their NFC East rival. Recreational bettors are pounding the NFL-best 8-1 ‘Iggles (+80% of spread bets). Marky Mark explains why that is a mistake in his Opening Line Report from Sports Insights. The Cowboys have value as home dogs but the best bet in the game is the Under.
At the time of publication, 87% of tickets are on the Over. The total has moved from 47 to 48. None of that action includes sharp money. No bet signals (steam moves or reverse line movement) have been triggered for the Over.
It may seem obvious to some bettors but it has been more profitable to take the Under in games with higher totals (more than 44 points). The trend has held even as scoring has increased over the last decade. Another advantage to taking the Under on Sunday night is that in divisional matchups the familiarity between teams (play calling, tendencies) tends to favor lower scoring games.
The public will be cheering for points but with no sharp action on the Over there is value on the Under.
Divisional Unders Late in Season
This Pro System has gone 149-90-3 (62.3%), +51.14 units since 2003. Not only is it highly profitable but this betting system produces consistent year-to-year results (only 1 losing record in last 9 years).
Only one team in the NFL runs the ball more than they pass it (Jags), but Philly and Dallas give the rock to their backs on rushing plays at the 6th and 8th highest rate in the league. The Eagles and Cowboys use the run game to extend series, ranking in the top 10 in fewest three-in-outs per drive according to Football Outsiders. The clock will be running in this divisional showdown helping to shorten the game. Contrarian bettors can profit by betting divisional Unders late in the season.
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