Cincinnati has dropped three straight and it would be an understatement to say the offense has been a problem. The Bengals lost 34-7 in Minnesota after getting rolled 33-7 by the Bears two weeks ago. Marvin Lewis’ soon-to-be former team ranks last in yards per game (268.9) and 29th in points per game (16.6).
Cincy’s opponent in Week 16 is Detroit. The Lions’ playoff hopes are still alive with the team needing to win out (and get help) to reach the postseason. Matthew Stafford & Co. have everything to play for while the wheels have come off in Cincinnati. There is no doubt who should win but which team will cover?
Detroit is a 5.5-point favorite on the road. Almost 80% of spread tickets have been written on the Lions. Recreational bettors are buying the motivation narrative for Detroit and fading a poor Cincinnati offense. That is a reasonable assessment but teams off a bad offensive game are undervalued (53.7% ATS since 2003) and the most profitable time of year to wager on a squad that fails to put points on the board is late in the season. By targeting bad offenses with little public support, you get a Pro System that has covered over 60% against the spread.
A +60% win rate against the spread is probably enough for most readers to consider wagering on the Bengals but for the remaining haters, a real-world example is always best. The last time we faded Detroit using this betting system was Week 14 of 2015. The Lions were small road favorites (-3) just like this week, and were facing Jeff Fisher’s Rams that had been outscored 71-10 in its previous nine quarters (Bengals have been outscored 80-14 in their last nine quarters). What happened? The then-St. Louis Rams won outright 21-14. Betting underdogs is never pretty but history suggests the Bengals are being undervalued by the betting market.
14 games with Pro System picks in Week 16
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