The Washington Nationals had themselves a day against the New York Mets on Sunday. Third baseman Anthony Rendon had three home runs, six hits and ten RBIs. Seven players had a multi-hit game and four had home runs as the Nats crushed the Mets 23-5. The game went over the total (7.5) in the top half of the third inning.
The 23 runs scored by the Nationals was the most this season and second most runs in our database dating back to 2005. The Texas Rangers scored 30 runs in August 2007 against the Baltimore Orioles. In fact there have only 26 games in our database where a single team scored 20 or more runs in a game.
I assumed that if a team scored a ridiculous amount of runs in one game (20 or more) that the UNDER might be a good play in the next. The thought process being that it would be incredibly hard to maintain that kind of run scoring and that casual bettors would remember the big offensive day and bet the over more than usual. This would cause the total to be artificially inflated lending value to the under. If you had the same thought as me, you’d be wrong.
Looking back at each game in our database, in the next game after a team scored 20 or more runs, the OVER went 16-8. It is an incredibly small sample but the results were still surprising to me.
The Nats host the Diamondbacks tomorrow. There currently is no line for this game but just because the Nats had an offensive explosive in their last game doesn’t mean they won’t score enough for the OVER to hit on Tuesday.
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