Even the most faithful fans of the Rams, 49ers and Browns aren’t expecting much this season. Combined the three teams won seven games in 2016. They were equally dreadful against-the-spread but that doesn’t mean bettors should fade them this fall. Bad ATS teams bounce back in the NFL.

The Rams, 49ers and Browns were a combined 12-34-2 (26.1%) ATS, the worst against-the-spread records in football. How likely are they to bounce back?

Since 2003, there have been 15 other teams that won four of fewer games against the spread. All of them won more games against-the-spread the next season.

Of the 15, ten finished with a .500 or better mark against-the-spread. On average those teams covered in 4.8 more games the next season.

The worst ATS teams (4 or fewer wins) since 2003 have gone 55-174 (24.0%) ATS, the next season those same teams have gone 127-109 (53.8%) ATS.

YearTeamATS Record (previous)ATS Record (next season)
201649ers4-11
2016Rams4-11
2016Browns4-12
2015Titans4-117-9
2015Cowboys4-1110-6
2014Titans3-124-11
2013Bears4-117-9
2013Texans4-129-6
2012Eagles4-128-8
2011Buccaneers4-1210-5
2011Rams3-1211-5
2010Panthers4-129-7
2009Lions4-1012-4
2008Broncos4-119-7
2008Jaguars4-125-11
2007Ravens3-1312-4
2003Giants3-118-8
2003Raiders3-126-9

If you blindly bet the worst teams from the previous season you would be +12.6 units since 2003.

The Rams, 49ers and Browns were terrible bets last season. They won’t win many games but they are not as likely to bankrupt bettors either.


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