Trend of the Week: Avoid Underdogs Before the All-Star Break

Avoid Underdogs Before the All-Star Break

The MLB All-Star Break is almost upon us. For many players, those not invited to participate in the Midsummer Classic, that means four days of rest and relaxation.

How you feel before vacation.

Baseball players are just like us, except for the average salary in the MLB being just over $4 million. Putting a pin in compensation, it is easy for all of us to get complacent at work with a vacation on the horizon. This is especially true for underdogs heading into the All-Star Break.

Since 2005, underdogs have gone 63-103 (38 percent, -$2,134) on the day before the All-Star Break. Historically, dogs win about 43 percent of the time. Why the difference in win rate?

The majority of teams (116) that are underdogs in their last game before the All-Star Break have losing records. It would be fair to assume then that most of the players on those squads have not been invited to the All-Star Game and are instead daydreaming about fun in the sun.

Whatever the true cause, this trend has been consistent from year to year. It is best to avoid underdogs before the All-Star Break.

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