Are we destined for a Packers-Steelers Super Bowl? Yes, if this trend is true. According to Reddit users /u/Skunkdog1 and /u/thedude831 the winners of the Steelers-Dolphins and Packers-Giants games from Wild Card Weekend are heading to the Super Bowl.
The Dolphins and Steelers and the Giants and Packers have played each other a combined ten times in the playoffs and the winner has gone onto the Super Bowl and/or won the title each time.
Steelers-Dolphins playoff matchups
1972: Dolphins win, go on to win Super Bowl
1979: Steelers win, go on to win Super Bowl
1984: Dolphins win, go on to lose Super Bowl
Packers-Giants playoff matchups
2007: Giants win, go on to win Super Bowl
2011: Giants win, go on to win Super Bowl
The Giants and Packers played five NFL championship games before the merger. In seven matchups between the two franchises in the postseason the winner has won the title every time.
According to this trend, the Packers and Steelers are headed for a showdown in the Super Bowl. However, our simulations don’t support this theory.
According to 10,000 simulations of the playoffs, Pittsburgh has a 13.7% chance of reaching the Super Bowl while Green Bay has an 11.2% chance.
Vegas puts the odds of a Steelers-Packers Super Bowl at +2650. The implied probability is 3.6% chance of occurring; by our numbers we see this matchup just 1.5% of the time.
We will see if this trend defies the math but don’t expect Steelers-Packers to decide it all.