Andy Dalton is having a disappointing season. The Bengals quarterback has a total QBR of 40.6 (average is 50), which ranks 26th in the NFL behind Eli Manning (benched) and Tom Savage (was benched but forced to start due to injury).
Dalton gets criticized for not getting A.J. Green the ball enough, for his failures in the playoffs and for having red hair.
That’s fair but the haters have to tip their caps to the Red Rifle when it comes to covering as an underdog. Since Dalton entered the league in 2011, no quarterback has been kinder to contrarian bettors in the regular season.
Dalton is 64.3% ATS as an underdog and has only had one losing season against-the-spread when getting points. Perhaps this helps explain the line movement in Monday night’s showdown between the Steelers and Bengals.
Pittsburgh opened as 6-point road favorites. More than 70% of spread tickets are backing the Killer B’s but the line has dropped to Cincy +3.5, triggering reverse line movement bet signals at Sports Insights.
Before you chase the sharp action, there are a few things you should know in order to get the full Andy Dalton experience. While he has the most win (33) in Paul Brown Stadium since 2003 he isn’t the most profitable quarterback to play in the Queen City – that’s Ben Roethlisberger. Dalton is 3-10 straight-up and against-the-spread vs. the Steelers.
As Stuckey noted in the Action Network’s NFL Week 13 betting preview, Pittsburgh has a clear advantage over Cincinnati in the trenches and the Bengals five wins this season have come against the Browns (twice), Bills, Colts and Broncos. Those teams have a combined record of 12-36 (25%) this season.
Dalton has a history of exceeding expectations as an underdog but recreational bettors taking the points are getting the worse of the number in a matchup that has not been kind to the ginger quarterback.