All good betting systems start with an idea or hypothesis. Before you start building your system, begin by asking a question – something like, “Does cold weather really affect points scored?” or “Do teams on the second night of a back-to-back play worse?” After you know the question you can mine the data to find the answer.
Without a hypothesis to test you run the risk of wagering on bad data. For example, the betting system below looks great with a large sample size, consistent year-to-year results and an incredible win rate.
However, there is no reason to explain the success of the system. It simply looks at the five most profitable NFL teams since 2003 and randomly selects point spreads that increase the win rate. There is no reason
Can you explain why your system is successful? Without a hypothesis you could succumb to custom fitting your data in an effort to increase a system’s win rate or profitability.
Simply being able to answer the question “Does this system make sense?” can lead to stronger predictions. It is important to have an underlying theory to explain why a betting system is successful.
With Bet Labs software you can test almost any sports betting idea or theory in seconds.