Conference Tournament Odds

tomizzo

The regular season is over and the tournament fields have been set for the power conferences.  I simulated each conference’s postseason tournament and posted the true odds for each team to win their respective tournament.

BIG TEN

TeamWin %True Odds
Michigan State38.0%+161
Indiana20.2%+394
Purdue12.5%+699
Iowa10.7%+831
Maryland10.2%+885
Wisconsin5.2%+1814
Ohio State1.3%+7810
Michigan1.0%+9788
Northwestern0.6%+15720
Nebraska0.2%+47360
Penn State0%N/A
Illinois0%N/A
Minnesota0%N/A
Rutgers0%N/A

Tom Izzo appears to have his team peaking at the right time again this season as the Spartans win the tournament over 38% of the time.  This conference has a lot of parity with five teams having better than a 10% chance to earn the automatic tournament berth.

ACC

TeamWin %True Odds
Virginia36.9%+171
North Carolina24.9%+301
Miami FL14.7%+582
Duke9.5%+955
Notre Dame5.7%+1658
Syracuse2.0%+4949
Florida State1.6%+5985
Clemson1.6%+6145
Pittsburgh1.1%+9027
Georgia Tech0.8%+12389
Virginia Tech0.7%+13083
NC State0.5%+21473
Wake Forest0%N/A
Boston College0%N/A

5Dimes is currently offering Virginia at +220 which is good value according to the simulation.  It’s no surprise that Duke (+440) is severely overpriced to win the tournament as they are still likely to see a lot of action based on name recognition.

SEC

TeamWin %True Odds
Kentucky35.2%+184
Texas A&M22.3%+349
Vanderbilt15.7%+536
South Carolina7.7%+1197
Florida4.6%+2057
LSU4.0%+2372
Georgia2.7%+3551
Mississippi2.5%+3922
Mississippi State2.2%+4463
Alabama1.5%+6492
Arkansas1.2%+8375
Tennessee0.3%+39450
Auburn0%N/A

Kentucky hasn’t been dominant like in years past, but they are still the favorite to win the SEC, which is having a down year overall.

PAC 12

TeamWin %True Odds
Arizona25.0%+299
Oregon23.7%+321
California18.8%+430
Utah16.6%+502
Colorado3.3%+2904
Oregon State3.0%+3242
USC3.0%+3290
UCLA2.5%+3855
Washington2.2%+4463
Arizona State0.9%+10686
Stanford0.8%+13083
Washington State0.1%+118550

The Pac-12 has the shortest favorite of the six tournaments with Arizona winning just over 25% of the time despite being the 4-seed.  It’s also interesting to see the two favorites of Arizona and Oregon both on the same side of the bracket as they would meet in the semifinals and not in the finals.

BIG 12

TeamWin %True Odds
Kansas35.9%+179
West Virginia20.9%+378
Oklahoma16.3%+513
Iowa State9.2%+984
Texas6.9%+1347
Baylor6.4%+1451
Texas Tech2.8%+3495
Kansas State1.3%+7810
Oklahoma State0.2%+47360
TCU0%N/A

Texas Tech is a clear longshot, but with 5Dimes listing them at +6000, they are a good value play and worth seeing if they can get through to the title game and have a hedge opportunity.

BIG EAST

TeamWin %True Odds
Villanova43.0%+133
Xavier23.7%+322
Seton Hall11.1%+799
Butler8.9%+1030
Creighton5.3%+1798
Providence4.5%+2139
Georgetown2.0%+4844
Marquette1.6%+6145
DePaul0%N/A
St. John's0%N/A

Villanova is the biggest favorite in the big six tournaments but the value play is on Seton Hall (+1050) who beat Xavier and only lost to Villanova by one point at home.  While this will be a neutral court, the Pirates are still offering value to win the championship in Madison Square Garden.

 

©2016 Sports Insights Inc.

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