The World Series begins on Tuesday night. The Los Angeles Dodgers have home field advantage and will host the Houston Astros in Game 1. The preseason odds of this exact World Series matchup were +4975. L.A. (best odds to win title were +1000 last October) hasn’t won it all since 1988 and the Astros (best odds to win title were +1200 last year) never have. Before the first pitch of the series, here is a betting preview including odds, trends and prop bets.
World Series Betting Trends since 2005
Moneyline Favorites: 40-25 (61.5%), +4.35 units
Home teams: 37-28 (56.9%), +1.63 units
- Home favorites: 29-17 (63.0%), +3.64 units
Over: 34-30-3 (53.1%), +3.02 units
A well-known betting strategy is the Zig-Zag Theory, which simply takes a team if they lost their previous game. The reasoning behind this system is that teams will try harder to avoid elimination after a loss but it doesn’t work in the World Series.
- Betting teams that lost the previous game: 22-29, -8.86 units
Fade Teams that Lost Previous Game as Favorite
We know the Zig-Zag theory doesn’t work, so it’s smart to fade a team after a loss. It is most profitable to target teams that were favored in the previous game: 14-6 (70.0%), +6.16 units.
Betting against the public (50% or less of ML bets)
Fading the public is the simplest strategy in sports betting. It works at every level of the MLB postseason.
- All postseason games: 235-202 (53.8%), +67.05 units
- World Series: 37-30 (55.2%), +10.47 units
2017 World Series Odds
Always shop around for the best lines. If you like Houston, 5Dimes is offering the Astros at +150. Dodgers bettors can get a better price at BetOnline laying $161 to win $100.
- Dodgers -170
- Astros +150
- Dodgers -161
- Astros +141
L.A. has home-field and is favored to win the series. Since 2005, teams with home field are 8-4 and the team favored to win it all is 5-7. Teams with home field and favored have gone 4-2 in the World Series.
Exact Outcome (BetOnline)
- Astros in 4: +1600
- Astros in 5: +700
- Astros in 6: +650
- Astros in 7: +550
- Dodgers in 4: +1000
- Dodgers in 5: +600
- Dodgers in 6: +350
- Dodgers in 7: +400
When will the World Series End? (BetOnline)
- Game 4: +600
- Game 5: +275
- Game 6: +200
- Game 7: +200
Where will the Series Finish? (BetOnline)
- In Houston +150
- In Los Angeles -170
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