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Each week we will provide trends for the top teams in college football. Some trends will be team specific and others situational. Our database goes back to 2005, the trends include all games in that time frame unless otherwise mentioned.
No. 1 Alabama (-30.5) vs. Arkansas
Alabama is often a big favorite but rarely against SEC team. The Tide are -11000 on the moneyline (implied probability of winning: 99.1%). It’s a lock that Bama wins but can they cover?
- In SEC games, teams favored by 4 or more TDs: 19-0 SU but 9-10 ATS
No. 2 Clemson (-21) at Syracuse
A week after beating VaTech in primetime, Clemson failed to cover against Wake. The Tigers also lost starting quarterback Kelly Bryant to an ankle injury and his status for Saturday’s game against the Orange is uncertain. Big favorites after failing to cover the previous game have been a bad bet.
Ranked teams after failing to cover previous game
- Favored by 21 or more points: 172-216 (44.3%) ATS
No. 3 Penn State bye
Penn State enters its bye week a perfect 6-0. The schedule is about to get a lot tougher. The Nittany Lions will play three straight ranked teams starting with Michigan. The lookahead line for Week 8 is Wolverines -4 at Penn State (Bovada).
Ranked teams at home after a bye: 95-68 (58.3%) ATS
- Vs. ranked opponent: 34-22 (60.7%) ATS
No. 4 Georgia (-30.5) vs. Mizzou
Georgia is good. Missouri is bad. Early money is on the Bulldogs but highly ranked teams at home against conference opponents are overvalued.
- Top 5 teams, at home against unranked conference opponent: 64-82 (43.8%) ATS
No. 5 Washington (-17) at Arizona State
Casual bettors might assume a good time to fade teams on a winning streak would be when they go on the road. That’s not the case and Washington (6-0) is a sizeable favorite at Arizona State.
- Road favorites on long winning streaks (6 or more wins): 144-108 (57.1%) ATS
No. 6 TCU at Kansas State
A contrarian strategy is betting against highly ranked teams after big wins. TCU now has back-to-back victories over ranked opponents but faces a potential trap game with a trip to Manhattan.
- Last 5 years, top 10 team favored after beating top 25 team: 49-64 (43.4%) ATS
No. 7 Wisconsin (-16.5) vs. Purdue
Wisconsin looks like the clear favorite in the Big Ten West division. The Badgers are averaging 257.6 rushing yards per game and giving up just 14.2 points. Purdue will have its hands full in Madison.
Wisconsin vs. Purdue
This Pro System is 157-97 (61.8%) ATS
No. 8 Washington State (-14) at Cal
Washington State is legit, a high-powered offense with a top 25 defense is no joke. Unfortunately for Cal this is the second top 10 team they face in consecutive weeks.
- Underdogs against a top 10 team after playing top 10 team in previous game: 42-51 ATS
No. 9 Ohio State (-23.5) at Nebraska
In road games this year Ohio State has averaged 52.5 points. Nebraska got rolled by Wisconsin 38-17 in Week 6. Looks like another long afternoon for the Cornhuskers on Saturday.
- In road Big Ten games, ranked favorites are 82-56 (59.4%) ATS
No. 10 Auburn (-6.5) at LSU
This is just the ninth time in our database that LSU has been a home dog against an SEC team. Auburn looks like a College Football Playoff contender but highly ranked SEC teams often have inflated lines and struggle to cover against conference opponents.
- Top 10 team on the road in SEC games: 66-80 (45.2%) ATS