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Each week we will provide trends for the top teams in college football. Some trends will be team specific and others situational. Our database goes back to 2005, the trends include all games in that time frame unless otherwise mentioned.
No. 1 Alabama (-27.5) vs. Ole Miss
Alabama is rolling with few speed bumps in sight. Currently, there are only three ranked opponents left on the Tide’s schedule with a road trip to No. 13 Auburn being the toughest.
- Bama is undefeated at home under Saban as a favorite of 14 or more points against SEC teams (23-0 SU, 14-9 ATS)
No. 2 Clemson (-6.5) at No. 12 Virginia Tech
Dabo Swinney’s team has answered the bell in each of its last two meetings against top 25 teams. Can Clemson do it once more in Blacksburg? A majority of spread bets are on the Tigers to cover as road favorites.
- In the last 5 years, the team getting <50% of spread bets in a matchup of top 25 conference teams: 94-65 (59.7%) ATS
No. 3 Oklahoma (BYE)
Oklahoma won a closer than expected game against Baylor but the Sooners will have a week off to make any needed adjustments. OU has four winnable games before traveling to Stillwater to face No. 15 Oklahoma State and a matchup at home against No. 9 TCU in consecutive weeks. The first game after the break is at home against Iowa State.
- Top 5 teams, at home against unranked conference opponent: 62-80 (43.7%) ATS
No. 4 Penn State (-16.5) vs. Indiana
Should a near loss be concerning for Penn State? The big takeaway from their nail biter with Iowa was that they won. The team’s playoff hopes are still alive. As big favorites the Nittany Lions are expected to win against Indiana but highly ranked teams don’t often cover in this spot.
- Top 10 teams at home after failing to cover previous week: 129-160 (44.6%) ATS
No. 5 USC (-4) at No. 16 Washington State
It’s not often that the public isn’t backing USC but at the time of publication less than 50% of spread bets were on the Trojans. The No. 5 team in the country has failed to cover in back-to-back games.
- In top 25 matchups, a favorite getting less than 50% of spread bets: 114-84 (57.6%) ATS
College Football Pro Systems
All picks in 2017 have gone 90-64 (58.4%), +25.68 units
No. 6 Washington (-26.5) at Oregon State
Washington is a Pac-12 title contender, soft non-conference schedule be damned. The Huskies will be doubted but they’ll continue to beat up against inferior opponents.
- Chris Petersen’s teams as a road favorite against unranked teams: 29-17 (63.0%) ATS
No. 7 Georgia (-7) at Tennessee
Is this a letdown spot for Georgia? The Bulldogs had an impressive win over a ranked Mississippi State team last week, now go on the road against another SEC rival. The Georgia-Tennessee game hasn’t been decided by more than eight points since 2010.
- Top 10 teams on the road in SEC games: 64-79 (44.8%) ATS
- Since 2010: 38-51 (42.7%) ATS
No. 8 Michigan (BYE)
Starting quarterback Wilton Speight left Michigan’s Week 4 win over Purdue in the first half with what Jim Harbaugh is calling a “soft tissue” injury. Getting a bye week is perfect timing for Michigan.
- Top 25 teams off a bye as home favorites in the 1st half: 82-57 (59.0%) ATS
No. 9 TCU (BYE)
TCU had the biggest upset of last weekend knocking off No. 6 Oklahoma State and propelling themselves into the National Championship conversation. The Frogs are getting a lot of hype after the big win, a perfect time to fade Gary Patterson’s team.
- Top 10 teams off a top 10 win: 57-81 (41.3%) ATS
No. 10 Wisconsin (-14.5) vs. Northwestern
The Badgers are well rested after a bye week. This has notoriously been a bad spot for opposing teams against top 25 units with extra time to prepare.
- Top 25 teams off a bye (14 days between games) at home: 94-63 (59.9%) ATS