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Each week we will provide trends for the top teams in college football. Some trends will be team specific and others situational. Our database goes back to 2005, the trends include all games in that time frame unless otherwise mentioned.
No. 1 Alabama (-26.5) at Texas A&M
Nick Saban’s team is the best in the country and has won its first two conference games by an average of 61 points. However, historically the SEC has been the toughest conference from top to bottom. Highly ranked teams have struggled to cover the spread in road games.
- Last 5 years, top 10 team on the road in SEC games: 19-31 (38.0%) ATS
No. 2 Clemson (-21.5) vs. Wake Forest
Clemson continues to impress with three wins over top 25 teams. Is this a letdown spot for the Tigers after a big win over VaTech last Saturday in primetime?
- Top 5 teams, at home against unranked conference opponent: 64-80 (44.4%) ATS
No. 3 Oklahoma (-28) vs. Iowa State
OU has won 14 straight games but barely beat Baylor 49-41 in Week 4. The Sooners have had extra time off to prepare for Iowa State. Even though the line is big, ranked teams have done well against-the-spread after a bye.
- Top 25 teams off a bye (14 days between games) at home: 94-63 (59.9%) ATS
No. 4 Penn State (-14) at Northwestern
PSU bounced back after a narrow win over Iowa to rout Indiana in Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions go back on the road this week to face Northwestern. Over 70% of spread bets are on Penn State.
- Top 10 teams in Big Ten road games: 59-36 (62.1%) ATS
No. 5 Georgia (-17) at Vanderbilt
After five wins, Georgia has jumped from No. 15 in the preseason polls to No. 5. Are the Bulldogs overrated? SEC East teams have struggled to cover against conference foes.
- Top 10 SEC East teams in conference games: 43-59 (42.2%) ATS
College Football Pro Systems
All picks in 2017 have gone 104-74 (58.4%), +28.77 units
No. 6 Washington (-27) vs. Cal
Chris Petersen is one of the best coaches in college football. He has Washington in contention for the College Football Playoff and is a big favorite in Week 5 against Cal but his teams perform much better against-the-spread on the road than at home.
Chris Petersen’s teams as favorites
- Road: 31-19 ATS
- Home: 31-32 ATS
No. 7 Michigan (-13.5) vs. Michigan State
It is the 110th installment of the Michigan-Michigan State rivalry. The Wolverines have owned the series going 69-35-5 straight-up but Sparty has been the better bet recently.
- Michigan is 3-9 ATS vs. Michigan State since 2005, Wolverines have lost nine straight against-the-spread and haven’t covered as a favorite since 2007.
No. 8 TCU (-14) vs. No. 23 West Virginia
You might have forgot but TCU had one of the biggest wins of the season beating No. 6 Oklahoma State in Stillwater during Week 4. The Horned Frogs took a week off before hosting No. 23 West Virginia. The public is on TCU, which means it’s a great time to fade the Frogs.
- Top 10 teams off a top 10 win: 57-81 (41.3%) ATS
No. 9 Wisconsin (-11.5) at Nebraska
Highly ranked teams are often overrated by the public. If a line moves (at least 0.5 point) against a top 10 team it has been profitable to fade the team. Wisconsin opened as 13-ponit road favorites but with 70% of spread bets backing Nebraska the line has dropped to Badgers -11.5.
- Last 5 years, when the line moves against a top 10 team in conference play: 47-62 (43.1%) ATS
No. 10 Ohio State (-32) vs. Maryland
Ohio State easily covered the spread last week against Rutgers. The Buckeyes (-28.5) won 56-0. Over 70% of bets were on Urban Meyer’s team. Casual bettors will load up on Ohio State once against after they covered but that’s a dangerous spot for gamblers.
- Last ten years, top 10 teams off easy cover (21 or more points): 68-82 (45.3%) ATS