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Each week we will provide trends for the top teams in college football. Some trends will be team specific and others situational. Our database goes back to 2005, the trends include all games in that time frame unless otherwise mentioned.
No. 1 Alabama (-18.5) at Vanderbilt
Bama has won the SEC four of the last five years including three straight. The Tide will begin their quest for a fourth consecutive conference championship with a road game at Vandy.
- Alabama has won 36 straight against unranked SEC teams under Nick Saban (23-13 ATS)
No. 2 Clemson (-34.5) vs. Boston College
Clemson won the marquee matchup of Week 3 against Louisville but don’t expect the impressive victory to go to the Tigers’ head.
- Under Dabo Swinney, Clemson is 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS after a win against a top 25 team
No. 3 Oklahoma (-26) at Baylor
Trap game? Probably not. Oklahoma is -4000 on the moneyline (implied probability: 97.6% chance to win) against a bad Baylor team.
- Early in the season (September), ranked road favorites against unranked opponents: 127-154 (45.2%) ATS
No. 4 Penn State (-12) at Iowa
Penn State and Iowa are both 3-0 but their records are soft. Neither team has played tough competition. This will be the Nittany Lions first true test, can Penn State handle a tough road environment?
- With Trace McSorley starting, Penn State is 8-0-1 ATS as a ranked team against an unranked opponent
College Football Pro Systems
2017 picks: 79-55 (59.0%), +22.61 units
No. 5 USC (-17) at Cal
USC needed overtime to beat a middling Texas team. The Trojans are big road favorites a week after failing to cover against the Longhorns.
- Top 10 teams that failed to cover the game before but are favored by 10+ pts: 152-186 (44.9%) ATS
No. 6 Oklahoma State (-11) vs. No. 16 TCU
This top 25 matchup features two undefeated Big 12 teams. The winner will have the inside track for the conference crown. At the time of publication over 70% of spread bets were on the Cowboys but the line has dropped from Oklahoma State -12.5.
- In top 25 matchups, home favorites of 7 or more points are 88-70 (55.7%) ATS
No. 7 Washington (-10) at Colorado
Washington’s record is unblemished but the Huskies have failed bettors twice (1-2 ATS) already this season. Can Chris Petersen’s team cash a ticket on the road in Colorado?
- Chris Petersen’s team as a road favorite against unranked teams: 28-17 ATS
No. 8 Michigan (-9.5) at Purdue
Jim Harbaugh’s team opened as 8.5-point favorites at Purdue. In early betting, a majority of tickets are on the Boilermakers but the line continues to climb.
- Top 10 teams in Big Ten road games: 48-29 (62.3%) ATS
No. 9 Wisconsin: BYE
Wisconsin concluded its non-conference schedule a perfect 3-0. The Badgers get an extra week of rest before Big Ten play begins.
- Top 25 teams off a bye (14 days between games) at home: 94-63 (59.9%) ATS
No. 10 Ohio State (-40) vs. UNLV
A week after losing at home to Oklahoma, the Buckeyes took care of business against Army. Ohio State gets one more tune-up game before conference action begins.
- Under Urban Meyer, Ohio State is 15-1 SU but 7-9 ATS at home against unranked non-conference teams